Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 10: This Russian head-to-head is hard to ignore...
Wednesday 6th September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 10…
The Long Game…
I said yesterday that Taylor Fritz owes us nothing…
A fixture in Ones to Watch since we first started following him a teenager. A 19-year-old Taylor appeared in our first ever annual Ones to Watch report back in 2017. He was ranked no.76 in the world back then…
We’ve since seen the American become a father… win his first ATP title in 2019… reach his maiden Grand Slam quarter final at Wimbledon in 2022 (when we were on him at 100/1)… and land us a 100/1 winner at Indian Wells last year, for the biggest title of his career to date. Fritz is now ranked no.9 in the world…
If we were to treat players as individual investments, then following Fritz has been a successful venture for us over the years. And he’s still only 25 years old.
With age on his side, Taylor will probably be looking forward to the day Novak Djokovic finally retires. The 36-year-old was in sensational form in last night’s quarter final, dispatching our men’s US Open outsider in straights sets. The diagnosis there was brutally straightforward: too good.
Is Marketa fit enough to compete?
Another long-time Ones to Watch name who has come good for us on the big stage is Marketa Vondrousova…
The Czech left-hander appeared in our 2018 report as an 18-year-old, ranked no.67. She’s now 24 years of age, and a Top 10 player…
Vondrousova reached the French Open final for us as a 40/1 Ones to Watch pick in 2019, finishing runner-up for an Each Way payout. She then went on to fulfil her Grand Slam potential this summer, lifting the trophy for us at the same price. A result that catapulted Marketa up to no.9 in the world.
As with Fritz, Vondrousova has had to overcome significant injuries, before returning to the tour to claim the biggest title of her career. It looks as if a fitness issue might be the main barrier to her progression through the draw here at the US Open this week…
I said yesterday that Marketa had a shoulder issue in the last round. She’s since pulled out of the Doubles. Which was no easy decision to make, as it effectively ended the playing career of her Doubles partner Barbora Strycova, with her Czech compatriot heading into retirement, having made a brief comeback after becoming a mother.
How will our player turn up today? We can’t know. Vondrousova v Madison Keys has been given the opening slot in the Night Session (7pm local time, Midnight UK time). At least giving Marketa a chance to see how she feels during the day…
It could be that the Doubles withdrawal was highly precautionary, with a Singles quarter final the obvious priority. But it could also be the case that our player is in a bad way, and might not be able to compete at all.
I don’t like dabbling too much in ifs, buts, and maybes…
If you’re on Vondrousova for the US Open and want to try and protect or recover that stake today, the simplest option is to back Keys to beat her. And to use a bookmaker who will pay out on Keys to win, if Vondrousova’s injury forces her to throw in the towel after a set or two.
There’s been a flip-flop in the match prices overnight, with Vondrousova now the 11/10 (2.1) underdog – and the American installed as the 8/11 (1.73) favourite.
Skybet are the optimum bookie to use here. With their Market Rules stating that a bet on Keys would pay out as a winner, should Vondrousova retire at any point during the match:
Firms with rules that state they pay out on the winner as long as one set has been completed include Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook/ Exchange, Ladbrokes & Coral, and Betfred. Check with your bookie for peace of mind.
This Russian head-to-head is hard to ignore…
We’ve talked a bit about head-to-head records this week. This evening’s all-Russian men’s quarter final between Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev carries quite a bit of history behind it – both on and off the court…
These two guys have known each other their whole tennis-playing lives. Here’s a photo of them as fresh-faced juniors, 10 years ago, here at the US Open, along with Jelena Ostapenko:
Rublev is one of tennis’ Nice Guys (see also, Hubert Hurkacz). And Andrey has always been deferential to Daniil, seeing the senior player as someone to look up to. Which doesn’t bode well in the cut-throat mental-strength stakes when you’re playing each other for a place in a Major semi final, in the biggest tennis arena on the planet.
We’re talking a lifelong friendship here, with Rublev the godfather to Medvedev’s daughter…
On court, the pro-career head-to-head is a resounding 6-2 to Medvedev.
An intriguing side-note, however, is that Rublev has improved against his close friend in recent years. With Andrey coming out on top in 2 of their last 3 meetings. Having previously lost 4 in a row to Daniil, without even winning a set – including a 3-0 whitewash here at the US Open quarter finals in 2020.
The case for the younger man might grow today, with this match set to be played amid a 35-degree heatwave in New York. Medvedev had a bit of trouble with his breathing in the last round. While Rublev seems to play with a relentless, Duracell-bunny engine…
Even so, odds of 2/1 (3.0) for the upset don’t really appeal to me, given the gravitas of this match. Former US Open champion Medvedev is the clear favourite, at 2/5 (1.4) and 4/11 (1.36).
Call me bloody-minded, but I’m sticking with the Over 1.5 Tiebreaks tactic….
We were one 7-6 score-line away from a 3/1 payout in last night’s all-American tussle between Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton. And considering this bet has paid out in 2 of the 4 meetings between Medvedev and Rublev in which three sets of tennis have been completed – which is the bare minimum in today’s best-of-five match. Odds of 9/2 (5.5) appeal. Both men are strong on serve, Medvedev especially so. At the prices available, two or more tiebreaks is my call.
Underdog potential in the big one?
It might feel like Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are on an inevitable path to meet in the final for the second Grand Slam in a row this summer. But there are still matches to be won – and tough opponents to overcome…
For the big headline night match, which will be in the early hours of Thursday morning, UK time. The career head-to-head for Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Zverev is also of interest – seeing as the German underdog actually leads the Spanish world no.1 and reigning US Open champ, by 3 wins to 2…
Zverev is in fact 2-0 v Alcaraz on hard courts, although the last meeting in those conditions was in 2021, before young Carlos became the all-conquering force that he is today.
Clearly though, as with Jelena Ostapenko against Iga Swiatek the other day, there’s something in this opponent’s game that troubles the no.1 ranked player.
Prior to a severe injury, Zverev made the final at the 2020 US Open, and then the semis in 2021. The case is there if you want to back the German as an outside bet tonight. He’s 7/2 (4.5) for the upset, and 20/1+ for the trophy.
However, at just 20 years of age, Alcaraz has already shown he has the taste and talent for five-set battles and bigtime Grand Slam matches – over and again. Ultimately, it’s hard to back against him here. I do however feel the Spanish superstar could require some tiebreak heroics, in a scoreboard that might not turn out to be straightforward for the no.1…
Over 1.5 Tiebreaks is available at 11/2 (6.5) and 5/1 (6.0). Zverev has one of the biggest first serves in the sport. And as with many all-round stars (Djokovic, for example) – Alcaraz is sometimes overlooked or underrated for his own serving abilities.
In both men’s quarter finals today, a Tiebreak in the Match is odds-on, at around 8/13 (1.62) for Medvedev v Rublev, and 5/6 (1.83) for Alcaraz v Zverev…
At the other end of the pricing spectrum, Skybet’s ‘Tiebreak Triumph’ market offers 250/1 each for a player to win by the 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 score-line…
Somewhere in-between, I like the two Over 1.5 Tiebreaks picks as singles. With a half-point stake on the double…
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details and staking advice
Marketa Vondrousova v Madison Keys – only if you’re already on Vondrousova to win the US Open:
Daniil Medvedev v Andrey Rublev:
Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Zverev:
Double:
Various Tiebreak markets also available with the likes of William Hill, Unibet, and Boylesports. Other alternatives to consider: 1st Set Tiebreak, and 7-6 Set Correct Scores.
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You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back tomorrow for Day 11, with the start of the semi finals.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone