Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 14: Men's Final - the war of attrition...
Sunday 10th September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 14…
Daniil Medvedev is 2/1 to beat Novak Djokovic tonight.
Over four and a half years ago, at the Australian Open 2019, we backed Medvedev as a 6/1 match underdog against Djokovic…
The Serbian star prevailed 3-1 in that Last 16 encounter – and went on to lift the trophy. But the blueprint for taking on Novak had been set: you have to be prepared – and able – to hang with Djokovic in long, gruelling rallies…
Daniil set his stall out that day in Melbourne. The Russian bedded in for a series of methodical, grinding baseline tussles with the Grand Slam champ. At times, it seemed like he was even deliberately coaxing Novak into a rally, rather than going for the quick kill. A brave game to play…
The tactic didn’t give Medvedev the win that day. But it gave him the template and belief that he could topple Djokovic. At that stage, their head-to-head was 3-0 to the Serb. It’s now 9-5. And in the years that have passed in-between, Medvedev has reached no.1 in the world and become a Grand Slam champion himself – beating Djokovic 3-0 here in New York in the US Open final, 2021.
Going into the cauldron of the Arthur Ashe Stadium Court tonight for the US Open 2023 men’s final, war of attrition is the phrase…
As we discussed the other day, Medvedev has been responsible for two of the four longest rallies in the men’s event this year (34 shots). He’s second for Most Aces, too. Although on the flipside, the current world no.3 is out in front by some distance for the Most Double Faults; serving more than twice as many as Novak (45 – 20). Daniil will need to keep a lid on serving errors today, and set up camp for the battle…
Against countryman Andrey Rublev in the quarter finals, Medvedev said he played 10 out of 10. Taking out defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the semis, the Russian called his performance ‘12 out of 10.’ If he can maintain his top level, then, the 2/1 underdog will be inwardly confident of pulling off the upset…
Of course, it’s a little off perhaps to call the world no.3 beating the no.2 (soon to be no.1) an upset. But Djokovic is the Grand Slam master, and out for revenge in New York on many levels…
As well as the Covid situation keeping him out of the United States in recent times, Djokovic was disqualified during the 2020 event for unintentionally striking a line judge with a ball hit in anger.
Bundle in the fact that that 2021 US Open final defeat to Medvedev stopped Novak in his tracks when he was looking to complete a historic ‘calendar Slam’ that year. And the case for Djokovic the avenger is a compelling one, from his side of the net at least.
The New York crowd don’t always cheer for Novak, either. He can get a bit hot under the collar when he doesn’t feel the love. But give Djokovic the bird too much, and all you do is make the great champ play even better…
All told then, I think we’re in for a great final tonight. It’s not the Djokovic-Alcaraz rematch that the media and public wanted. But it might just be the sleeper hit of the summer…
Seven of their previous 14 encounters have been settled in straight sets. Including two of their three clashes at the Majors. Since that 2019 Melbourne match, Djokovic has prevailed 3-0 in the 2021 Aussie Open final – only for Medvedev to turn the tables with a 3-0 victory of his own here at Flushing Meadows two years ago.
Those formbook stats don’t stop me from expecting a long battle tonight, though…
These guys are no stranger to epic Grand Slam matches. And in front of a full house in New York, the entertainment could come via some lung-busting rallies, brave serving, and world-class shot-making at crunch moments…
It’s 9/4 (3.25) to go to 5 Sets. And 12/1 to ‘Go the Distance’ and be settled by a final-set tiebreak.
Those prices are with Bet365, who also offer 5/4 (2.25) and 11/4 (3.75) for Djokovic and Medvedev respectively in a market called ‘Match Result and Both Players to Win a Set.’
We can also throw in the possibility of Tiebreak Sets & 7-6 Set Scores here.
As a catch-all bet based around my war-of-attrition prediction for this evening’s final. Over 38.5 Games is the play in the Total Games market…
Over 38.5 Games could mathematically pay out in three straight sets (but only if the score was 7-6, 7-6, 7-6; an outcome that Skybet have priced at 200/1 for Djokovic and 250/1 for Medvedev – ‘Tiebreak Triumph’ market).
Realistically then, we’re looking for four or five sets. An option that is 1/2 (1.5) with Sky, in the Over 3.5 Sets betting. The price for Over 38.5 Games beats that, and can pay out in four sets with a score-line like their aforementioned 2019 meeting Down Under (40 games).
And finally…
An underdog bet that appeals to me today is Medvedev to win 3-2, which pays 7/1 or 13/2 in the Set Betting market. If the upset is on, it’s going to likely involve a mighty wrestle tonight. Medvedev said this week that he ‘never quits’ – and Novak is of course one of the greatest competitors.
Something about Daniil’s demeanour this week gets me thinking he’s up for taking the scalp here…
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details
Men’s Final – Daniil Medvedev v Novak Djokovic
Main bet:
Smaller bet:
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The players are due on court from 9pm, UK time.
You can watch the final live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back next week, with two WTA tournaments on the calendar, in Japan and San Diego…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone