Tennis Betting Advice - September 2024
US Open: Brazilian fighter is the underdog value today...
Monday 2nd September 2024
There are 12 women left in the US Open singles draw, with the full Quarter Final line-ups set to be completed by the end of play tonight…
From those dozen ladies on the list, we’re on Ones to Watch youngster, Diana Shnaider – backed last week at 40/1. The 20-year-old Russian has looked every inch the dangerous outsider so far, and is yet to drop a set.
Shnaider faces a tough match today though, with the world no.18 taking on world no.6, Jessica Pegula. Our youngster is the underdog, and the bookies haven’t done much wrong there. But Pegula is known for getting nervous and failing to close out big matches, on the biggest stage. She’s even on record talking about the pressure. The American will have the home crowd cheering for her on the giant Arthur Ashe Stadium Court today – that will either make or break Pegula…
Remember, as we’ve said before – most notably at the business end of Wimbledon last summer – the 30-year-old is still to break through the Quarter Final barrier at any of the Grand Slams. If she beats Shnaider today, Pegula will get a seventh (count ‘em) chance to win a Major QF.
Back Beatriz today at 60/1…
Back to that 12-name field of remaining players in the Women’s US Open Outright Winner market. And of that dozen, aside from our 40/1 young gun Shnaider, the underdog value today in my eyes is Beatriz Haddad Maia…
The 28-year-old Brazilian, world no.21 is having one of those ‘out of the blue’ runs that we tend to see so often in the women’s game. After ending 2023 with a trophy win, Haddad Maia has had a clunky 2024. Until now, that is…
Beatriz’s summer got going when she reached the Final at WTA Cleveland on the eve of the US Open. Admittedly, the standard of opposition she faced in that 250-grade event was not on a par with the deep end of a Grand Slam. But you cannot underestimate the importance of a return to form, and a surge in confidence…
So far here in New York, Haddad Maia has thumped her way to three consecutive match wins. And with 34-year-old, back-from-retirement Caroline Wozniacki up next today, and the Dane a little sore with reported arm and back issues. The last person on the tour you want to be facing if you’re flagging at all is Haddad Maia. The Brazilian is known as one of the biggest battlers on the circuit, and frequently features in end-of-season records for longest matches of the year…
I once heard a commentator say that Beatriz only starts playing if it’s going close late in the second or third set. In other words: she loves a fight.
Odds of 66/1 and 60/1 catch the eye today, even with the new reduced place terms of 1/3 odds Each Way for reaching the final. Full disclosure: I had Haddad Maia in my notes last week when she was 100/1+. I wanted to wait and see how things transpired, and watch her in action. I reckon today will be the last chance to grab 50/1+…
Women’s Outright market this morning – Skybet:
The American Dream…
In the Men’s event, I’m happy as can be with our American selections. Especially with the early exits of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic opening-up the competition…
In the top half of the draw, Tommy Paul (advised at 100/1 – 80/1) takes on world no.1 and title favourite Jannik Sinner in the late match tonight. A proper Ones to Watch, underdog scenario – just how we like it…
While in the bottom half, our men Taylor Fritz (backed at 66/1 or 50/1) and Frances Tiafoe (150/1 – 80/1) are both through to the Quarter Finals. If they win their respective Last 8 encounters, Fritz and Tiafoe will play each other in the Semis – and that would guarantee us an Each Way profit going into the Final. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
US Open 2024 – Women’s
Outright Winner – Each Way:
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You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. I’ll be back in the week with more updates from New York.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone