Tennis Betting Advice - September 2024

One to Watch in Seoul at 40/1...

Monday 16th September 2024

We just missed out in the ‘money match’ in Mexico last week…

Our 25/1 shot Camila Osorio lost in the WTA Guadalajara semi finals – one win away from an Each Way payout.

100/1 shot Olivia Gadecki beat our player on the day, and finished runner-up. The title went to Magdalena Frech (20/1).

The week’s other tournament, WTA Monastir in Tunisia, also produced two big-odds finalists, at 50/1 apiece…

Britain’s Sonay Kartal came through qualifying to reach a maiden WTA final – and win it. Runner-up Rebecca Sramkova was also playing in her first final. As was Gadecki. And like Kartal, Frech lifted her first career singles trophy at this level.

With two women’s tournaments producing finalists at 20/1, 50/1, 50/1, and 100/1 last week. The Ones to Watch message remains clear: in the tennis Outright Winner markets, we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…

Since the start of August, we’ve been on a solid run of finalists and semi-finalists. Knocking on the door of a big one…

Sebastian Korda won ATP Washington for us at 8/1. Starting a streak of weekly tournament runs that have gone well and/ or come close for us…

WTA Toronto – Emma Navarro @ 20/1 – semi final

WTA Cincinnati – Paula Badosa @ 45/1 – semi final

Men’s US Open – Taylor Fritz @ 66/1 – runner-up (place payout)

WTA Guadalajara – Camila Osorio @ 25/1 – semi final

Summer might be over, but the tennis season continues…

We have two women’s tournaments already underway this week, WTA Hua Hin in Thailand, and WTA Seoul in South Korea.

On Wednesday, the ATP Tour also lands in Asia, with two events taking place in China. More on those men’s tournaments later in the week.

Yue Yuan has form in Korea…

Today, we’re on the big-odds hunt in Korea, with a 40/1 shot catching the eye…

Last time we backed Marta Kostyuk, it was as a 100/1 outsider for the US Open. Here at this WTA 500-grade event in Seoul, Marta is just 5/1 for the trophy. Likewise, another Ones to Watch youngster who we’re keeping an eye on at the Grand Slams, Diana Shnaider. The latter went in the book for us at 40/1 in New York last month… this week, she’s also priced at around just 5/1 in general. We want bigger…

China’s Yue Yuan got to the final at this event last year, as a 100/1 rank outsider. The 25-year-old, world no.40 is an aggressive, physical player – and when fitness is on her side, she can be a dangerous opponent for many…

Yue Yuan won a maiden WTA title earlier this year, as a 25/1 shot in Austin, USA. That triumph was sandwiched between a breakthrough semi-final run in Hobart, New Zealand – where she won five matches on the bounce to come through qualifying and through the main draw. And an impressive, outsider run to the quarter finals at the big 1000-grade ‘Masters’ tournament at Indian Wells, USA.

All of those results came on outdoor hard courts. And after winning her 1st round match in Seoul earlier today, I’m struggling to find a reason not to back last year’s runner-up to go well again at this venue – with odds of 40/1 and 33/1 on offer…

Granted, a tough test could come in the very next round. With the Chinese player booked-in to face either Emma Raducanu, or the upcoming American, Peyton Stearns. Those two are as short as 6/1 and 14/1 to go all the way this week, respectively…

Raducanu beat Stearns in Washington this summer. If the British player repeats that, she’ll take on the physical challenge of Yue Yuan – and Emma is unfortunately gaining a reputation for being a bit flaky when it comes to the daily grind of life on tour. I prefer the odds for the Chinese player to make an outsider run this week.

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Ones to Watch picks:

See above for full details

WTA Seoul Hana Bank Korea Open

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Yue Yuan @ 40/1 Skybet, Betfred, Betway, 35/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/1 William Hill, 28/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral 

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The time difference in Asia means early starts for us; Tuesday’s play at WTA Seoul begins from 4am UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches. You can watch the tournament live on Sky Sports – should early-morning TV be your thing…

I’ll be back in the week with more.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch