OTW Extra Email Archive - April 2017
Ones to Watch this week - at 20/1 and 25/1...
Tuesday 25th April 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
200/1 finalist in Monte Carlo...
In last week’s email we looked at the merits of betting at double-figure prices, and the Monte Carlo Masters result proved that point once again...
Clay court king Rafael Nadal won the tournament at 5/2 (3.50), but the semi final on the other side of the draw was made up of 66/1 (67.00) Lucas Pouille against 200/1 (201.00) Albert Ramos-Vinolas...
And it was the bigger priced player who came through to reach the final, with 200/1 Ramos-Vinolas finishing runner-up to Nadal – with 1/2 odds place terms meaning that run to the final represents a 100/1 (101.00) Each Way result.
I didn’t pick Ramos-Vinolas. I’m not claiming any glory for us in Monte Carlo. But what I’m saying is – as I’ve said before – we really should be looking to back these big prices, when the right player catches the eye... because these big price finalists keep coming up.
View the full list of 2017 settled Outright Winner prices to date here.
Ones to Watch this week – at 20/1 and 25/1...
Event: WTA Stuttgart (Porsche Tennis Grand Prix), Germany
Surface: Clay court
Date: 24th – 30th April
There are four tournaments taking place this week, but the one I’m interested in is the Women’s event in Stuttgart...
This is getting plenty of media attention as it sees Maria Sharapova given a Wild Card into the draw and making her first tournament appearance since January last year (suspended).
Sharapova is a best price 12/1 to make a winning return. That’s a big ask with no form in the book, and she’s in the top half of the draw with World No.2 Angelique Kerber who is 9/2 (5.50), French Open champion Garbine Muguruza (11/1) along with potentially dangerous outsiders Kristina Mladenovic (50/1), Elena Vesnina (50/1) and Daria Kasatkina (25/1)...
Go with the old, go with the new...
Teenager Kasatkina is the one I like as a double-figure outsider in the top half of the draw. She is one of the five women on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list, and recently won her first ever WTA title, on clay in Charleston at 28/1. The young Russian is a real danger at this clay court event, too – and goes off at a similar price...
Kasatkina has already beaten World No.2 Kerber twice this season, and with her first senior trophy in the cabinet, confidence looks to be at a high. As I’ve said before, I like her attitude. I expect her to turn up here playing to win, as usual – rather than taking ‘time out’ after a recent tournament success.
In the other side of the draw and at the other end of the career age spectrum, former Stuttgart (and French Open) winner – and another Russian – Svetlana Kuznetsova is the one who stands out for me at a double-figure price (20/1)...
Kuznetsova has reached the quarter final or better in four of her last eight clay court events, and aged 31 she has been playing some of her best tennis since her 2009 glory days.
The likes of Simona Halep (8/1) and Johanna Konta (16/1) lurk in this part of the draw, but Halep has lost in the 1st round in Stuttgart in two of her last three visits, and Konta has yet to carry her remarkable breakthrough form from hard courts onto clay court.
I’m going for one youngster and one veteran this week – both at attractive Each Way prices...
One to Watch:
WTA Stuttgart – Porsche Tennis Grand Prix
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Enjoy the tennis. I’ll be back next week...
Best wishes,