OTW Extra Email Archive - April 2018

Profit from ‘repeat business’ on Tour...

Wednesday 11th April 2018

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:

  • Profit from ‘repeat business’ on Tour...
  • The price of success...
  • Clues in the calendar...

Profit from ‘repeat business’ on Tour...

This week I’ve been doing a bit of research into a trend that has caught my attention more than a couple of times recently.

Last February we landed a 12/1 Ones to Watch winner thanks to Victor Estrella Burgos winning the ATP Quito title – for the third year in a row.

A player’s previous record at an event can be a good form guide factor.

Of course, as everyone involved with betting should know and be told, past performance is not indicative of future results.

But on the tennis tours, where every venue is different and everything from the playing surface, altitude and the player party goodie bags can impact on a player’s performance – it can certainly help to be aware of who does best where and most often...

The price of success...

There’s another driving factor here, too. If a player wins a tournament one year, they don’t just want to return the following year for the good memories and familiar faces: they have World Ranking Points to defend...

The rankings computer and all its complexities are beyond me. I’m no expert in that department. But in general, what is worth knowing is this:

If you do well at a tournament one year, you need to do well at that tournament the next year – otherwise your ranking points will take a hit.

Take Johanna Konta, for example. Last March she won the WTA Miami title – the biggest tournament win of her career to date...

Before Miami this year, Konta was up to 11th in the WTA rankings. But after winning just two matches at Miami 2018, going out in the 3rd Round and failing to defend her title – Jo dropped to No.22. Ouch.

Clues in the calendar...

I’ve gone through the 2018 tournament calendar and noted all the successful incidences of ‘repeat business’ to date:


WTA Shenzhen:
2017 runner-up – Katerina Siniakova (80/1)
2018 runner-up – Katerina Siniakova (22/1)

Australian Open – Men:
2017 winner – Roger Federer (22/1)
2018 winner – Roger Federer (2/1)


WTA St Petersburg:
2017 runner-up – Kristina Mladenovic (50/1)
2018 runner-up – Kristina Mladenovic (16/1)

ATP Montpellier:
2017 runner-up – Richard Gasquet (4/1)
2018 runner-up – Richard Gasquet (5/1)

WTA Dubai:
2017 winner – Elina Svitolina (10/1)
2018 winner – Elina Svitolina (9/1)

WTA  Acapulco:
2017 winner – Lesia Tsurenko (16/1)
2018 winner – Lesia Tsurenko (10/1)


ATP Indian Wells
2017 winner – Roger Federer (10/1)
2018 runner-up – Roger Federer (6/5)

Looking to the future...

On the Calendar page on our website, I keep track of all the weekly Outright Winner prices for tournament winners & runners-up. The page has all the info since the start of 2017, and I update it weekly.

There’s no crystal ball. But the roster of past champions and finalists can certainly help us on the hunt for future payouts...

Take this week’s ATP Houston event, for example. Four of the last seven Houston champions have been Americans. For more on that tournament – including my Outright Winner picks for this week – check out my full Ones to Watch members-only service.

I’ll be back next week with more from the tours.

Enjoy the tennis,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch