OTW Extra Email Archive - August 2017
Three big prices before the Big Apple...
Monday 21st August 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Favourites continue to falter...
I’ve mentioned the phrase wide open a few times this season. And with the US Open just one week away, ‘wide open’ continues to be the outlook...
That means attractive, double-figure prices are there to be attacked. With real potential for finding Each Way value in the tournament Outright Winner markets – both in New York next week, and in the final two US Open warm-ups events this week.
The single-figure favourites failed to deliver again in the Cincinnati Masters last week...
The Men’s event saw 33/1 outside chance Grigor Dimitrov beat 20/1 Nick Kyrgios in the final, with 3/1 favourite (and new World No.1) Rafael Nadal only managing to reach the quarter finals.
In the Women’s Cincinnati event, 8/1 favourite and current World No.1 Karolina Pliskova missed out in the semi finals. With the final seeing 10/1 Garbine Muguruza beat 10/1 Simona Halep.
Our 33/1 Men’s pick Karen Khachanov went out in the 3rd Round last week, but we were much closer and a bit unlucky with our 18/1 Women’s One to Watch, Sloane Stephens...
The American made it to the semi finals, but Sloane was out of gas by the time Saturday’s match came along, having had to play two matches back-to-back on Friday after bad weather disrupted the playing schedule.
Overall, Stephens is looking good and should stay on the radar – an attacking style with plenty of power makes for exactly the kind of player that has been winning the Grand Slam trophies in the Women’s game this season (Serena Williams, Jelena Ostapenko, Garbine Muguruza).
Ones to Watch this week...
This week we have two smaller-scale events in the final build-up to the US Open. Tournaments like these are prime hunting ground for big prices, ‘shock’ winners and a few surprise finalists...
Last season, the week before the US Open saw 50/1 Pablo Carreno Busta win the ATP Winston Salem title (he’s just 12/1 this time).
While in the weeks before the three Grand Slams so far in 2017, we’ve seen players lift trophies at odds of 33/1 and 40/1 – and runners-up at 25/1, 33/1, 50/1, 100/1 and 300/1.
With most of the big names missing this week to prepare for New York (and the risk of others dropping out as injury precautions), we should look to the bigger end of the prices in Winton Salem and New Haven...
Three big prices before the Big Apple...
In the ATP Winston Salem event, the top half of the draw looks tricky – containing the top two in the betting. Last year’s runner-up Roberto Bautista Agut is the 11/2 (6.50) tournament favourite and American hope John Isner is the 6/1 (7.00) second favourite.
Isner has never lost a match here (won 12 lost 0 record, winning the title in 2011 and 2012), but also has a history of pulling out of events during busy periods and with a Grand Slam next on the calendar.
It makes sense then to concentrate on the bottom half of the draw. Another American, Steve Johnson is worth considering (12/1), but hasn’t been shown much form for a while. Neither has potential 3rd Round opponent Viktor Troicki, but the difference here is in the prices...
Troicki is available at 33/1 and 28/1 and those prices could prove to be value this week. The Serbian was a semi finalist here last season. He hasn’t done any better than that three-match winning streak since then. However, his recent losing run isn’t as bad as it looks with defeats in the Masters events at Montreal and Cincinnati to two big-serving opponents playing well in the shape of John Isner and Nick Kyrgios – those were Troicki’s first matches since withdrawing from Wimbledon through injury.
All three of Troicki’s career ATP titles have come on hard courts, as have five of his six final appearances. The bottom half of the Winston Salem draw looks winnable for a number of players and at a big price, Troicki is worth backing to find a bit of form here.
In the WTA New Haven event in Connecticut, there are plenty of reasons to ignore the three favourites at single-figure prices: last year’s winner Agnieszka Radwanska (7/1), favourite Petra Kvitova (4/1) and Dominika Cibulkova (9/1). The main reason is the upcoming US Open; it’s also worth noting that Radwanska looks to be a player on the fade, and that both Kvitova & Cibulkova looked less than 100% fit in Cincinnati last week.
Two players at much bigger prices are worth following. In the top half of the draw, Kirsten Flipkens is a massive 80/1. The Belgian is as short as 28/1 with BetVictor, and a big difference in opinion like that suggests the bigger price could prove value...
Flipkens has won three matches against decent opponents to come through Qualifying here, and can carry that form through to the main draw. She’s made the quarter finals on her last two visits to New Haven – including last year when losing to eventual winner Radwanska. Her tricky playing style can frustrate opponents and at a huge price, this looks the kind of tournament where Flipkens could work her way through the draw.
In the bottom half of the draw, the returning-to-form Carla Suarez Navarro is my One to Watch at 20/1. The Spaniard is generally thought of as a clay court player but four of her six semi final appearances since the start of 2016 have come at hard court events – and three of her last four WTA final appearances have been on hard courts.
Suarez Navarro has won her recent meetings with several potential opponents here including 1st Round foe Jana Cepelova, along with Alize Cornet, Christina McHale and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
The Spaniard’s current world ranking of No.35 isn’t a true reflection of her ability – Suarez Navarrro reached a career high No.6 last season and has finished each of the last four seasons inside the Top 20. This unfashionable but hard working player could prove a little underrated as a 20/1 outsider.
Ones to Watch this week:
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Latest ATP Winston Salem odds here
Latest WTA New Haven odds here
Play starts at 3pm UK time in New Haven and 8pm in Winston Salem.
Coming up Wednesday – your free US Open report...
I’ll be back on Wednesday evening with your free US Open 2017 – Ones to Watchreport. Naming my early list of big-price outsiders to follow in the final Grand Slam of the year...
So far this season we’ve seen 100/1 Jelena Ostapenko win the French Open and 28/1 Marin Cilic come runner-up at Wimbledon. And after our 33/1 pick Karolina Pliskova landed an Each Way payout at the US Open last year, we can head to New York next week with plenty of ambition.
Your free report will be the first stage of my US Open coverage – lookout for more info in Wednesday’s email...
Enjoy the tennis,
Best wishes,
