OTW Extra Email Archive - August 2017

Two to follow in Toronto - at 14/1 and 33/1...

Monday 7th August 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Price watch...
  • Ones to Watch this week...
  • Two to follow in Toronto – at 14/1 and 33/1...

Price watch...

July was a good month for us with two tournament winners from our weekly Ones to Watch picks – David Ferrer @ 15/2 (8.50) and Katerina Siniakova @ 20/1 (21.00).

We weren’t able to get a blockbuster hat-trick last week though, with 50/1 (51.00) Heather Watson falling at the first hurdle in the WTA Washington event.

We were right to go after the value price though and ignore the short prices – Washington tournament favourites 2/1 (3.00) Simona Halep and 13/2 (7.50) Kristina Mladenovic were both out the tournament by the quarter final stage.

Here are last week’s results and pre-tournament prices in full, from across the Men’s ATP and Women’s WTA Tours. Once again, there was a healthy smattering of finalists at double-figure, outsider prices:

ATP Washington
Winner: A.Zverev (7/1)
Runner-up: K.Anderson (25/1)

ATP Los Cabos
Winner: S.Querrey (5/1)
Runner-up: T.Kokkinakis (33/1)

ATP Kitzbuhel
Winner: P.Kohlschreiber (8/1)
Runner-up: Joao Sousa (20/1

WTA Stanford
Winner: M.Keys (9/1)
Runner-up: C.Vandeweghe (7/1)

WTA Washington
Winner: E.Makarova (14/1)
Runner-up: J.Goerges (14/1)

Ones to Watch this week...

This week the Tours head to Canada for the annual Rogers Cup – a prestigious title and one of the key hard court events in the build-up to the US Open...

The Rogers Cup is a ‘Masters 1000’ event for the men and a ‘Premier 5’ level event for the women. In Plain English, that means this is pretty much the highest level of tournament other than Grand Slams. As such, we see plenty of big names and Top 10 players on show. However, not quite as many star names as usual – with the likes of Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova all missing through injury, and of course Serena Williams off for the rest of the year.

There’s more potential for some ‘surprise’ results than in other seasons, and with this year’s Masters events already seeing a 25/1 tournament winner and a 200/1 runner-up, we shouldn’t fear going after the big Each Way prices this week. (See all of this season’s tournament prices on our Calendar page here.)

Two to follow in Toronto...

The Rogers Cup alternates between cities each year. This week we have the men in Montreal and the women in Toronto. I like two players at Each Way prices in the Women’s event, one from each half of the draw.

In the WTA Toronto draw, my Ones to Watch picks are Johanna Konta @ 14/1(15.00) in the top half and Madison Keys @ 33/1 (34.00) in the bottom half...

Konta is now a genuine Top 10 player and has strong season-long form backing her up here.

Over the summer on grass, Konta’s record reads Semi Final (Wimbledon), Semi Final, 2nd Round and Final (runner-up).

Her 2017 outings on hard court have been even more impressive: Final (won – Miami Premier event), 2nd Round, Quarter Final (Australian Open), Final (won), Semi Final.

This is Konta’s first event since Wimbledon and at double-figure odds of 14/1 I prefer her to new No.1 and tournament favourite 8/1 (9.00) Karolina Pliskova in the top half of the draw (they can’t meet until the semi finals).

Konta is in the same quarter as the back-from-injury but still not-at-full-speed Petra Kvitova (14/1), and the World No.3 Angelique Kerber at 20/1 (21.00). Kerber is 18 tournaments without a trophy win since lifting the US Open last year. At least one of Kvitova and Kerber will be out before Konta could face them.

In the bottom half of the women’s draw, Keys could be dangerous and prove underrated...

At 33/1 and 25/1 she’s a bigger price this week than some firms make her for the US Open itself later this month. That could be because back-to-back tournament wins are hard to achieve, but Keys looked fantastic when winning in Stanford on Sunday (her first ever hard court title) and her long-standing wrist issues seemed to be behind her for now.

In fact, I’d go so far as to say that 2-0 win over an in-form Coco Vandeweghe in Sunday’s final was the most impressive single match performance I’ve seen on the women’s tour so far this season. Keys didn’t lose serve once and was aggressive, calm and dominant throughout.

Simona Halep at 10/1 (11.00) and Wimbledon champion Garbine Muguruza at 9/1 (10.00) are the favourites from the bottom half of the draw, but both came unstuck last week. Keys beat Muguruza 2-0 at Stanford, while Halep withdrew from her quarter final match in Washington through heat illness.

Konta and Keys are my Ones to Watch in the Women’s tournament.

Ones to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • WTA Toronto – Johanna Konta @ 14/1 Each Way with Sportingbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Betway, Stan James
  • WTA Toronto – Madison Keys @ 33/1 Each Way with Sportingbet, 25/1 William Hill, 22/1 Bet365, Betway, 20/1 general

Latest WTA Toronto odds here

Plays starts today at 4.00pm UK time in Toronto, and the tournament is live on BT Sport throughout the week.

I’ll be back soon – next week if not before – with more Ones to Watch picks for you.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson