OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2017
Victor wins at 12/1 - and an 80/1 shot for this week...
Monday 13th February 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Victor wins at 12/1...
We got our first points on the board for 2017 last week, with our One to Watch pick Victor Estrella Burgos lifting the ATP Quito trophy in Ecuador...
I flagged up Estrella Burgos in last week’s email at a standout 12/1 Each Way.
And the diminutive veteran from the Dominican Republic came up with the goods, putting in a typically big-hearted performance. Coming through a week of long matches and a final that went to the wire...
Estrella Burgos saved three Match Points in the 2nd Round against the big-serving Ivo Karlovic (who hit an incredible 39 Aces in that match, but served a Double Fault when serving at Match Point). And our 12/1 winner also saved a Championship Point in Sunday’s final-set tiebreak.
Small margins. But they went our way this week. And it’s not all down to ‘luck.’ Victor played aggressive throughout and held his nerve on the crucial points.
Estrella Burgos has now won the ATP Quito title three years running, and is played 15 won 15 at the tournament. He becomes the only player in ATP history to have won three titles at the same event having not won any other titles elsewhere.
Were you on Victor last week?
I’d love to hear how you got on... Tell me about your bet here.
That 12/1 payout is our first Ones to Watch tournament win from five weekly ATP/ WTA Tour events covered so far this season. Betting to 1 pt Each Way stakes, the spreadsheet shows 8 pts profit for a 66% ROI.
Last season our weekly Ones to Watch gave us seven payouts from 30 tournaments covered – producing 23.5 pt profit and a year-end 35% ROI.
Proving that it’s not about how many winners we get – but about the prices that we take. Last week was a good case in point, as we got on the biggest-priced finalist from across the three events played...
Here are last week’s settled pre-tournament prices:
Winner: V.Estrella Burgos (12/1)
Runner-up: P.Lorenzi (5/1)
Winner: G.Dimitrov (5/2)
Runner-up: D.Goffin (4/1)
Winner: A.Zverev (11/2)
Runner-up: R.Gasquet (4/1)
You can view all events & prices for the year on our Calendar page, updated every week.
Ones to Watch this week – at 33/1 and 80/1...
For the first time since the Australian Open last month we have both the men (ATP) and women (WTA) in action this week...
13th – 19th Feb:
ATP Rotterdam – indoor hard
ATP Memphis – indoor hard
ATP Buenos Aires – clay
WTA Doha – hard
Rotterdam is the first ATP 500-level event of the season, but some of the glamour has been lost this week with big names Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka both withdrawing from the field. In their place, Grigor Dimitrov (4/1), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (6/1) and Tomas Berdych (8/1) are the three players at single-figure prices at the top of the field. A note for the romantics – this tournament was won by surprise 50/1 outsider Martin Klizan last year, and the fiery left-hander is as big as 80/1 to put together another inspired run here.
Buenos Aires is the second clay court event of the season, and World No.5 Kei Nishikori (11/8 favourite) must be looking to get some competitive clay tennis under his feet before spring’s French Open. Seeing as the Japanese star has decided to travel to South America rather than defend the Memphis title that he has won an unprecedented four times in a row.
Talking of Memphis, I like the teenager Taylor Fritz as a 33/1 Each Way outsider...
The 19-year-old American is on my Ones to Watch for 2017 list, and as I pointed out in that report, he is particularly worth keeping an eye on in North American hard court events. Fritz made his tournament breakthrough here in Memphis last season, reaching his first (and to date, only) ATP final.
He has a tough opening match against tour veteran Yen-Hsun Lu, but if his serve is on game then Fritz is well capable of coming through that and then putting a run together. I read an interesting ‘tour diary’ article recently where potential semi final opponent Steve Johnson spoke of how difficult he found it mentally to play against his young friend and fellow American (Fritz beat Johnson here last year)...
At 33/1 he’s a long-shot price, but Taylor is an up-and-coming player and this is exactly the kind of tournament that we should be looking to follow him in.
On the Women’s tour, there’s a high-profile event in Qatar with the Premier-level WTA Doha title up for grabs...
World No.2 Angelique Kerber (7/2) and World No.3 Karolina Pliskova (7/2) are the joint favourites in a strong field, but Kerber has looked the more vulnerable so far this year so it makes sense to target her half of the draw...
This event was won by 33/1 underdog Carla Suaraz Navarro last year. She’s not here to defend her title (injured) but there is scope for another big price ‘surprise’ – and I like Elena Vesnina as an 80/1 Each Way outsider.
The Russian had an eye-catching 2016 – reaching the Wimbledon semi finals – and also reached the quarter finals here in Doha, only losing to eventual champion Suarez Navarro. Vesnina is a player I like, she plays with fire and spirit, and is capable of raising her game for a big occasion...
Again, this is a speculative price, but it’s one that could start to get exciting if one or two of the big names go out in the early rounds.
Ones to Watch:
Each Way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places
I’ll be back next week with more Ones to Watch...