OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2018
250/1 whopper - and New York action tonight...
Tuesday 13th February 2018
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Welcome to this week’s edition of your new free tennis email, Ones to Watch EXTRA.
Every week you get my updates on the latest player form, tournament winners & prices. Plus my dedicated free ‘Ones to Watch’ reports and player lists throughout the season.
Price Watch – 250/1 whopper...
Our Price Watch feature is a useful gauge of what’s happening on the Tours...
If the short-price favourites were winning all the trophies, we’d have to say that the bookies always got it right or that we’re in a dull age of tennis domination. But they don’t and we’re not...
Last week’s tournament outcomes were yet another example of big prices paying out in the tennis – keeping up the 50%+ ratio for double-figure odds (10/1+) tournament finalists that I have been following for some time now.
ATP Quito
Winner: R.Carballes Baena (33/1)
Runner-up: A.Ramos (7/1)
ATP Montpellier
Winner: L.Pouille (6/1)
Runner-up: R.Gasquet (5/1)
ATP Sofia
Winner: M.Basic (250/1)
Runner-up: M.Copil (50/1)
Victor Estrella Burgos’ three-year reign came to an end in Quito, with 33/1 Roberto Carballes Baena landing the first clay court trophy of 2018.
The Sofia tournament was the real eye-catcher last week, with 250/1 qualifier Mirza Basic winning his first ever ATP title, aged 26 – beating 50/1 outsider Marius Copil in the final.
Form Watch – Copil coming good...
A great story there in Sofia, but for me the ‘takeaway’ player was runner-up Marius Copil – aged 27, the hard-hitting Romanian looks to be improving. He was serving like a monster for most of last week and after reaching two lower-tier Challenger finals towards the end of last season, we could see him featuring more regularly in main ATP draws from now on.
Form Watch – Mladenovic form flip continues...
Our ‘Form Watch’ player from a couple of weeks ago, Kristina Mladenovic, is continuing to turn things around...
After snapping a 15-match, six-month losing streak, Mladenovic made the St Petersburg final – then won 2 out of 2 singles matches for France in last weekend’s Fed Cup tie v Belgium. She’s started this week with a 2-0 win in her opening match in the first Premier 5 level Women’s tournament of the season, WTA Doha. Things look to be improving fast for the Frenchwoman, so keep an eye on her.
Form Watch – Nishikori starts in New York tonight...
Back to the Men’s tour and Kei Nishikori takes to the new ‘black courts’ at the inaugural ATP New York Open tonight (midnight+)...
As we noted last week, Nishikori is on the comeback from injury, recently winning a Challenger event in the States and now stepping back on to the main tour...
The Japanese star was a four-time winner of this indoor hard court event at its previous home in Memphis. He’s seeded No.5 here and the bookies make him the 9/2 (5.50) tournament favourite.
A comeback win could be a ‘tall’ order for Kei...
It’s not the best draw for Nishikori – he’s in the top half along with the 6’10” American John Isner and his big serve... the 6’8” top seed Kevin Anderson... and 6’11” Ivo Karlovic lurks in the other side of the draw, too.
At this point I should point out that Nishikori stands at 5’10”. However, what he lacks in giant-size height he makes up for in reflexes – Kei can return the ball brilliantly and after watching some of the opening action at this new wood-based hard court venue last night, there is hope to get some of those big serves back I reckon.
At 9/2 Nishikori isn’t my kind of price but I’ll definitely be monitoring him this week with future opportunities in mind.
Four out of four so far...
Talking of opportunities, if you haven’t taken up a Free Trial to my new members-only Ones to Watch service yet, now would be a good time to start...
We’ve had four out of four winning match bets in the last seven days, and members also receive all my Outright Winner selections. We currently have one Each Way bet running in Doha this week and there are five tournaments on the calendar for next week...
Enjoy the tennis...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson