OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2018
Veteran Victor going for 4 in a row...
Wednesday 7th February 2018
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Welcome to this week’s edition of your new free tennis email, Ones to Watch EXTRA.
Every week you get my updates on the latest player form, tournament winners & prices. Plus my dedicated free ‘Ones to Watch’ reports and player lists throughout the season.
Price Watch – 16/1 Mladenovic back in the game...
Hardly pausing for breath after the first Grand Slam of the year in Australia, the weekly ATP & WTA tennis tours roar back into action this month.
There are a total of 18 tournaments on the calendar in ‘frantic February,’ with a mixture of indoor & outdoor hard court events across the globe as well as the start of the clay court season in South America.
The women returned to action last week with two tournaments, and the winners and pre-tournament prices were:
WTA St Petersburg
Winner: P.Kvitova (6/1)
Runner-up: K.Mladenovic (16/1)
WTA Taipei
Winner: T.Babos (8/1)
Runner-up: K.Kozlova (10/1)
We always take heart from double-figure prices, and the 50%+ ratio continued last week with those two 10/1 and 16/1 outcomes.
The resurgence in form for Kristina Mladenovic was a good start for our new Ones to Watch EXTRA ‘Form Watch’ feature...
As we noted last week, Mladenovic had been on a woeful 15-match losing streak and without a win on the tour for six months.
The 24-year-old finally had a smile on her face last week though...
Returning to the scene of her first and to date only WTA title win, in St Petersburg the Frenchwoman snapped her losing run with three back-to-back wins to reach the final in Russia for the second year running.
Mladenovic beat Dominika Cibulkova, Katerina Siniakova and Daria Kasatkina – all very good players with the youngsters Siniakova and Kasatkina particularly impressive. Mladenovic’s match win prices there were 12/5 (3.40), 6/5 (2.20) and 11/8 (2.38) respectively – three underdog wins in a row.
Despite that alarming slump in form in the second half of 2017, Mladenovic is ranked No.13 in the world and as such should get a decent seeding at plenty of upcoming events.
As I said last week, confidence is a funny thing and a winning streak might now be just around the corner for Mladenovic. We’ll keep an eye on her progress and prices for sure – and see if the comeback continues.
Form Watch – veteran Victor going for 4 in a row...
This week’s schedule includes the ATP Quito event in Ecuador – the first clay court tournament of 2018 and the start of the tour’s so-called ‘Golden Swing’ in South America...
This was the scene of a 12/1 winner for us last year when Victor Estrella Burgos took the Quito title – for the third year in a row. And seeing as this tournament has only been going for three years, he’s the only man to have ever won it.
Estrella Burgos is 37 years of age now, and the veteran has returned this week for a fourth crack at the trophy...
Over on my new members-only Ones to Watch service we’re keeping an eye on Victor’s progress this week...
Having won his opening match – beating Thomaz Bellucci for the fourth year running in Quito – Victor is currently around 12/1 again for what would be an unprecedented fourth successive title at the venue (he’s never won an ATP title anywhere else).
However, there’s a big name in his side of the draw...
The presence of 4/1 shot Gael Monfils puts me off an Outright Winner pick on the reigning champ from the Dominican Republic.
Monfils would usually to be found in France during this week of the season. He’s a two-time winner of the ATP Montpellier event, but has instead elected to make a debut appearance in Quito, Ecuador.
Estrella Burgos and Monfils could be on a collision course for a semi final showdown.
Form Watch – Nishikori heads for New York next week...
Talking of comebacks, the return of Kei Nishikori is one to look out for...
The 28-year-old World No.27 has struggled with injuries throughout his career, but is a genuine Top 10 player when match fit. Nishikori missed both the US Open and Australian Open with a wrist injury, but is working his way back onto the tour now...
The Japanese star appears ready and willing to put the hard yards in. Opting for rehab instead of wrist surgery, Nishikori has entered two lower-tier ATP Challenger events so far this season – winning the Dallas Challenger title last week.
The drop down to Challenger level could prove a smart move. Allowing Nishikori to work on getting back to match sharpness, and rack up some confidence-building wins along the way. His two recent Challenger outings in the USA (Dallas and Newport) were his first appearances on that lower-tier circuit since 2010 – a time when Nishikori was first making his name.
A 2014 US Open finalist, Nishikori’s best results have come on hard courts – all told, 226 of his 331 career ATP match wins have come on hard courts (68%).
Nishikori was a four-time winner of the ATP Memphis event between 2013 and 2016, which has now relocated to Long Island, New York and plays for the first time next week...
The first ever staging of the New York Open has Nishikori down as one of the headline entrants, along with top American players such as John Isner, Sam Querrey and the 2017 Memphis winner Ryan Harrison.
This is the only indoor hard court ATP tournament held in the States, and the NCYB LIVE venue will be showcasing their new ‘black courts’ as part of the inaugural New York Open.
P.S
If you’d like to sample ALL my weekly ATP and WTA tournament Outright Winner picks and Match Betting advice, you can get a Free Trial membership to my full Ones to Watch service...
So far this week we’re betting on the ATP Montpellier event, including a 20/1+ Each Way pick for the title. If you’re not a member of this exciting new ‘tennis club’ yet, get instant access with a Free Trial here.
Enjoy the tennis...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson