OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2020

Beware vulnerable favourites on the weekly tour...

Thursday 27th February 2020

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
 

  • Beware vulnerable favourites on the weekly tour…

  • A ‘handsome profit’…

  • Next week’s picks – don’t miss the Friday deadline...


There’s no such thing as a ‘sure thing’…


Just because a player is the favourite and a short price, it doesn’t mean they’re going to win.

There is no such thing as a ‘sure thing,’ in tennis, or in any other sport for that matter.

Just last week, for example, Dominic Thiem was one of the shortest prices to win a tournament that you’ll see all year…

In the Outright Winner market for the ATP Rio de Janeiro event, Thiem was just 11/10 (2.10) to win.

That was the Austrian’s first clay-court appearance of the season. He won just two matches, bowing out in the quarter finals, where he was beaten in straight sets by a 100/1 qualifier, Gianluca Mager.
 

  • In the ATP Rio market, my Ones to Watch members & I opposed Thiem, backing 10/1 shot Cristian Garin instead. The 23-year-old Chilean went on to lift the trophy last Sunday night


Avoiding the short prices in Mexico…


There’s more evidence this week. In the men’s & women’s events in Acapulco, several seeds and favourites have fallen in the early rounds…

ATP Acapulco:
 

  • Nick Kyrgios (7/1 and defending champion) – KNOCKED OUT. Managed just one set of tennis before retiring injured in the 1st round
     

  • Alexander Zverev (5/1) – KNOCKED OUT. Lost in 2nd round, 2-0. With the ‘yips’ coming back to haunt him on his serve this week, Zverev posted 8 Double Faults in his 1st round match, then 9 Double Faults in his 2nd round defeat
     

WTA Acapulco:

Top three in the betting all KNOCKED OUT in the 1st round…
 

  • No.1 seed Sloane Stephens (5/1), No.2 seed Yafan Wang (10/1 and 2019 champ) and household name Venus Williams (9/1)
     

  • Stephens has now lost 4 out of 4 matches in 2020. Yafan Wang has lost 5 out of 6. And 39-year-old Venus has lost 2 out of 2 so far this season
     

With injury, serve issues and loss of form all in evidence there, you can see why I call those ‘vulnerable favourites.’

You never know what’s going to happen on a tennis court. You can’t control how a player performs or if they get ill or injured. But you can control the odds that bet at…

At Ones to Watch, I’m only interested in one thing: appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…

This week in Acapulco, as I write, Ones to Watch members have two players running, with two good prices on our side:
 

  • In the men’s event, 20/1 Kyle Edmund is through to the quarter finals on Thursday night. The bookies now make Edmund 7/1 for the title
     

  • And in the women’s, Tamara Zidansek at top prices of 40/1 and 33/1 is also through to the quarter final stage. Zidansek’s odds have now been cut right down to 4/1
     

If you like the idea of getting on outsider odds like those – 20/1 and 40/1 Each Way shots – on the weekly ATP & WTA Tours. Then consider joining the ranks of my Ones to Watch members:

 

‘…Handsome profit at 10/1…’
“Congratulations on tipping Cristian Garin in Rio - at 10-1 he provided a fourth handsome profit for me in 2020 … Terrific few weeks - long may it continue” – Steve L

‘…I know nothing about tennis – 50/1 winner…’
“I’m a new subscriber, know nothing about tennis but I was lucky enough to get on Kenin at 50/1 … Thanks for your hard work” – Leon

‘…Recouped my annual membership with the first tournament...’
“I am a new member to Ones To Watch. Using very small stakes I have already recouped my annual membership fee with the first tournament! … As you always say, there will be losers but this is more than compensated with your most insightful reasoning”Harry D


Don’t miss the 4pm Friday deadline…


If you fancy getting access to all my weekly tournament picks – only ever backing lively outsiders and Each Way prospects at attractive prices - then take a trial on my Ones to Watch service…

We go for odds like those above, 20/1, 40/1, 50/1 – and we’re even going after a 100/1 winner throughout the course of the year.

Every Sunday night I publish my latest tournament previews, analysis and Outright Winner picks to members. I call it the ‘Sunday Night Club’...

This Sunday evening I’ll be sending out my members-only picks for next week’s tournaments. There are two events on the women’s schedule.

Join me by signing up by 4pm this Friday, and you’ll be on our email system to receive that advice on Sunday night…

We’ll be targeting the big prices at tournaments in Lyon and Monterrey.

And also coming up in March, the huge events taking place at Indian Wells and Miami. Those two have seen some whopping prices in recent years, including 125/1, 100/1, 80/1, 66/1 & 50/1 winners and/ or finalists. That’s why I call it March Mayhem!

Don’t miss the 4pm Friday deadline to ensure you’re onboard for the Sunday night picks...

Book your place now >>

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch Extra