OTW Extra Email Archive - January 2019
Top seeds are out – and a pick for the morning...
Wednesday 9th January 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
As a special New Year bonus for you, I’m sending out all of my members-only advice for the first fortnight of the season to readers of my FREE Ones to Watch Extra newsletter (that’s the email that you’re reading right now). That means YOU get all my emails & bet advice, taking you right up to 13th January.
Here’s the latest email sent to Ones to Watch members today...
The top seeds are out...
As an underdog backer, I’m usually rooting for the big names to be knocked out. If the favourites lose, it opens up the tournament draw for our outsider picks, helping clear the path to the final.
As anticipated in the week before the first Grand Slam of the year, several star players have been sent tumbling in this week’s tournaments...
The No.1 seeds in the WTA Sydney, WTA Hobart and ATP Auckland events are all out – with World No.1 Simona Halep along with Caroline Garcia and John Isner all falling at the very first hurdle in those three respective tournaments.
So, we were right to oppose the favourites. All three of those top seeds were single-figure prices in the Outright Winner markets.
Our double-figure odds Ones to Watch picks couldn’t take advantage this time. Anastasija Sevastova, Maria Sakkari and Marco Cecchinato (all 16/1) also went out in the early rounds. But we are right to look to the bigger prices and lesser-known names.
We’ll be doing the same again all season, starting with the Australian Open next week...
The last eight Women’s Grand Slams have seen eight different winners.
In the Men’s, there hasn’t been a Grand Slam with the top four seeds in the semi finals since the start of 2012. There have been 27 Grand Slam tournaments since then.
There will be plenty of opportunities for us in Melbourne in the coming fortnight. I’ll have more details on the Aussie Open for you at the end of this week.
Today, we’re having our first match bet of the season...
A pick for the morning...
In yesterday’s email I mentioned 18-year-old Dayana Yastremska, one of 10 young & up-and-coming players on our new Ones to Watch in 2019 list.
Yastremska won her second match of the week overnight, taking just 60 minutes to beat fellow rising star Vera Lapko, 6-1, 6-4. That follows on from a similarly convincing 6-3, 6-1 score-line for the big-hitting Ukrainian in the 1st Round.
Dayana now goes on to face another highly-rated young player in the quarter finals, Belinda Bencic. The 21-year-old was on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list as a teenager, but suffered an injury-hit year or so after that. She’s back on tour again now, and ranked No.55 in the world (having been as high as No.7 in February 2016).
With Yastremska ranked No.59, it’s no surprise that the bookies currently have these two neck and neck for the WTA Hobart trophy, at 4/1 (5.00) each.
The match betting is just about 50-50 too, with Yastremska priced at 4/5 (1.80) and Bencic at Evens (2.00).
Bencic prevailed last time they met, but only just – squeezing through 7-6 in the final set. That encounter came after a gruelling run of matches for the younger player, with Yastremska competing in Luxembourg straight after winning a first senior WTA title in Hong Kong the week before.
I watched that match; both players were nearly in tears, and Yastremska was really battling tiredness more than the scoreboard. That won’t be the case this time and if anything, Bencic has played the more tennis so far this month having represented Switzerland at the Hopman Cup.
These two also met earlier in 2018, again on hard courts, with Yastremska edging it 7-6, 7-6 in the New Haven qualifiers.
The key to this match could be the 2nd Serve stats. A floppy serve has been Bencic’s weakness for some time, and it’s something the powerful Yastremska will be all over in this match – looking to punish any slow serves or short balls with a go-for-broke winner.
In her two matches so far this week, Bencic has won 50% and 41% of her 2nd Serve points. In that Luxembourg match, the Swiss player won just 39% of points on her 2nd Serve v Yastremska.
This could be the best match price that we see for the teenager this week. Yastremska is the match pick for me.
Today’s Ones to Watch pick is:
WTA Hobart – Hobart International
BET: Dayana Yastremska to beat Belinda Bencic @ 4/5
BOOKIES: 4/5 (1.80) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports
Yastremska v Bencic is scheduled for around 7am Thursday morning, UK time. The match is live on BT Sport.
Apologies for getting my geography wrong in yesterday’s email. I mistakenly said that Hobart was in New Zealand. It is, of course, the capital of the Australian island state of Tasmania.
Enjoy the tennis...