OTW Extra Email Archive - January 2019
Two 16/1 shots in Sydney and Hobart…
Sunday 6th January 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
As a special New Year bonus for you, I’m sending out all of my members-only advice for the first fortnight of the season to readers of my FREE Ones to Watch Extra newsletter (that’s the email that you’re reading right now). That means YOU get all my emails & bet advice, taking you right up to 13th January.
Here’s the latest email sent to Ones to Watch members today...
Nothing to fear…
We made a good start to the season. Our first two picks of 2019, Daniil Medvedev (14/1) and Alex De Minaur (18/1) made the ATP Brisbane final and quarter final respectively.
Both youngsters are on our new Ones to Watch in 2019 list. And both showed again that they are very much on the up. Medvedev took out Andy Murray as well as two other former Top 5 players, Milos Raonic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
World No.2 and pre-tournament 11/4 (3.75) favourite Rafael Nadal was also in the top half of that Brisbane draw alongside our two underdog picks – and Rafa pulled out injured without hitting a ball.
Elsewhere, World No.1 and reigning US Open and Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic started the week as a very short 4/7 (1.57) favourite in Doha. Djokovic was knocked out in the semi finals by Roberto Baustista-Agut, with the Spaniard going on to lift the trophy at 33/1 – beating the returning-from-injury Tomas Berdych (66/1) in the final.
As those results and prices show, we shouldn’t fear taking on the big names and favourites in the weekly tournaments.
Daniil Medvedev’s runner-up finish in Brisbane (lost to Kei Nishikori in the final, 2-1) means we pocket a bit of profit in week one of the season. Odds of 14/1 paid out at half the odds Each Way for reaching the final.
This week’s picks – two 16/1 shots…
The week before a Grand Slam is often a good one for backing outsiders.
With many of the Top 10 players and star names having an eye or two on the Australian Open – which starts just seven days from now – we can again look beyond the favourites and top seeds in this week’s draws…
Last week we had two ATP (Men’s) picks. This evening I’m kicking off our Women’s 2019 coverage with my first WTA bets of the season…
US Open winner Naomi Osaka has already pulled out of the WTA Sydney event – so that’s the initial ante post favourite gone already.
The top half of the revised Sydney draw is what you call ‘loaded’: big names and high-ranking players like World No.1 Simona Halep (7/1), Ashleigh Barty (9/1), Sloane Stephens (12/1), Jelena Ostapenko (40/1), Garbine Muguruza (14/1) and Elise Mertens (25/1) are just some of the established names in that top section of the Sydney draw. We’ll leave someone else to pick the bones out of that lot.
In the bottom half, things look a bit simpler to me and the player I’ve got my eye on is Anastasija Sevastova at 16/1 and 14/1….
Sevastova is up to a career-best ranking of No.11 in the world, and had a great run to the semi finals in the last Grand Slam, the US Open 2018. Aged 28, the Latvian is playing the best and most consistent tennis of his career in this second phase of her time on the WTA Tour – having originally retired in 2013 due to injury and illness.
Anastasija ended the year well, with a further semi final run in Moscow (indoor hard courts) and a final on hard courts in Beijing.
Sevastova kicked off 2019 in decent form on the hard courts last week with a quarter final showing at WTA Brisbane, posting two comfortable 2-0 wins before being edged out 2-1 by the higher-ranked Osaka. This tricky and talented player has appeared on our Ones to Watch lists before, and I want to follow Sevastova throughout the season – starting from now.
Over in New Zealand, the WTA Hobart draw-sheet is weaker on paper than Sydney, with top seed Caroline Garcia ranked No.19 in the world.
Garcia is priced at 15/2 (8.50) at best; the Frenchwoman has bags of ability but she is prone to nervous moments and plenty of wobbles, so isn’t one to follow when the favourite. Garcia also has a tough passage through the top part of the Hobart draw including upcoming young American, Sofa Kenin up first, then the dangerous Ons Jabeur as a potential opponent – as well as Maria Sakkari…
Sakkari is another of the names in our Ones to Watch in 2019 report, and at 16/1 and 12/1 I want to back her in her first WTA appearance of the new season.
Over the last week or so the big-hitting Greek youngster has been playing in the Hopman Cup in Perth, which is an International team event (non-ranking). She looked to be having a lot of fun there, and racked up some decent early-season form Down Under with a fair showing against Serena Williams (lost 7-6, 6-2) along with two match wins. Including a victory against the Swiss starlet Belinda Bencic, who is the 10/1 second-favourite this week and in the opposite side of the Hobart draw.
Maria made a slow start to 2018 but ended the season in much better form, including a semi final in Seoul and a first final, finishing runner-up in San Jose – both on hard courts. I’m expecting Sakkari to progress in leaps & bounds this season. This week’s tournament looks a good a place to start.
This week’s Ones to Watch picks are:
WTA Sydney – Sydney International
BET: Anastasija Sevastova @ 16/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 16/1 (17.00) Bet365, William Hill, 14/1 (15.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports
WTA Hobart – Hobart International
BET: Maria Sakkari @ 16/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 16/1 (17.00) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, 12/1 (13.00) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
Play starts in Sydney and Hobart just after midnight, UK time. Note: bookies will temporarily suspend their Outright/ Tournament Winner markets during the day’s play. Sevastova and Sakkari don’t play until Monday night onwards.
I’ll be back in touch over the next few days with more on this week’s tournaments. Plus we’ll be stepping up our preparations for the first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open in Melbourne which start on 14th January.
Enjoy the tennis…