OTW Extra Email Archive - July 2017
20/1 winner - and a 50/1 shot for Washington this week…
Monday 31st July 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
20/1 winner…
We’ve had a couple of good weeks with our Ones to Watch picks…
On Sunday, Katerina Siniakova won the WTA Bastad title – providing a very nice 20/1 (21.00) payout.
That result came on the back of 15/2 (8.50) David Ferrer winning the Men’s ATP Bastad title the week before. So it was a good fortnight for us at the Swedish clay-court event, with both the Men’s and Women’s winners landed.
Our 20/1 Each Way selection Siniakova put a great run together throughout the week – knocking out three consecutive Top 20 players in Anastasija Sevastova, Caroline Garcia and Caroline Wozniacki, who were also the three top seeds at the tournament.
The 21-year-old Czech player went one better than last season in Bastad, where she was runner-up. Siniakova has now won two WTA titles this season – the first senior Singles trophies of her career – and on last week’s evidence, there should be more to come.
As for Sunday’s runner-up Wozniacki, it’s been a case of ‘always the bridesmaid’ this season…
The Dane has now reached five WTA finals this season – and lost all of them. And considering Wozniacki is often damned with faint praise as ‘a former World No.1 BUT has never won a Grand Slam title…’ – her respectable and consistent career continues to not quite hit the very high notes.
One to Watch this week…
There are five more tournaments taking place this week. The last knockings of the clay court season sees the ATP Kitzbuhel event in Austria, while the rest of the men are in hard court action in the build-up to the US Open with events in Los Cabos, Mexico and Washington, USA.
The women’s tour is concentrating on the North American hard courts with the WTA Stanford and WTA Washington tournaments this week.
It’s the latter that catches the eye for me, with a speculative 50/1 outsider in the women’s Washington event…
Watson a 50/1 shot for Washington…
World No.2 Simona Halep is the 2/1 favourite for the WTA Washington title, but I prefer to look for a value price in the opposite side of the draw…
In the bottom half, Kristina Mladenovic is 13/2 (7.50) and the tournament second favourite. The Frenchwoman is a player I like and has featured in our Ones to Watch lists before. However that price isn’t much to get excited about this week and Mladenovic has a couple of potential banana skins in her side of the draw, including the likes of Christina McHale (22/1), Eugenie Bouchard (25/1) and Camila Giorgi (20/1) – and that’s just up to the quarter final stage.
In terms of a potential semi final opponent from that bottom half of the draw, I like the 50/1 available for Britain’s Heather Watson…
Watson looks to be in a pretty winnable quarter of the draw, with possible quarter final opponent Julia Goerges (14/1) the most dangerous. The German has reached two finals this summer (one the week before Wimbledon, one the week after), but was last seen retiring in Bastad last week. The career head-to-head between Watson and Goerges stands at 1-1, with Watson winning their only hard court meeting, at Indian Wells (USA) in 2015.
If Watson can make it through then it could set up that possible semi final with Mladenovic. The head-to-head there is 4-2 to the Frenchwoman, although it’s worth noting that Watson has taken her the distance to three sets in their two most recent meetings.
Heather has come through qualifying to make the main draw here, so is familiar with the conditions. And can build on a decent summer that has seen a semi final on grass at Eastbourne and a decent showing at Wimbledon, where she was beaten in three sets by the formidable Victoria Azarenka.
Each of Watson’s three WTA Singles titles have come at hard court events of a similar rank to this one (Osaka, Hobart and Monterrey) and she could do something again here.
The bookies’ prices suggest a difference of opinion this week and that could play into our hands, too. Ladbrokes and Coral make Watson just 16/1 (17.00) – but we can get 50/1 (51.00) elsewhere. That’s a huge difference and there looks to be value to be had…
One to Watch this week:
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Latest WTA Washington odds here
Play starts today at 6.50pm UK time.
I’ll be back next week – if not before – with another Ones to Watch update for you.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
