OTW Extra Email Archive - July 2017

Ferrer wins - and two 20/1 shots for this week...

Monday 24th July 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Ferrer wins in Sweden...
  • Ones to Watch this week...
  • Two 20/1 shots...

Ferrer wins in Sweden...

Last week’s One to Watch payout on David Ferrer was particularly satisfying.

Nothing in the 2017 formbook said the 35-year-old was on any kind of ‘winning streak.’ The Spanish veteran was two years without an ATP title.

But a small recent upturn in form – a win over a very good player at Wimbledon and a straight sets win in his opening match in the ATP Bastad event in Sweden – were enough to tweak something that suggested Ferrer could be about to put a run together.

I often talk about ‘small margins’ in tennis. The nature of the scoring system means you can be one point from victory and still lose – or one point from defeat and come back to win. The latter was the case for us last week, with Ferrer saving two Match Points in his quarter final match – before going on to reach the final and win the tournament.

Ferrer provided a 15/2 (8.50) or 7/1 (8.00) payout, lifting the ATP Bastad trophy for the third time in his career.

It was a similar story when another player deep into his thirties, Victor Estrella-Burgos, won his third ATP Quito title earlier this year – also saving Match Points on the way – to land us a 12/1 (13.00) winner.

Luck, maybe. You always need a few things to go your way, I guess.

But also a good ‘Ones to Watch’ triumph for us, with last week’s Bastad tournament favourites Pablo Cuevas and Albert Ramos-Vinolas rightfully avoided.

Ferrer’s win made it a nice profit on the week (after 12/1 pick Pierre-Hugues Herbert went out in the quarter finals in Newport), and a pleasing way to carry on after Wimbledon where our 28/1 One to Watch, Marin Cilic finished runner-up.

  • Did you back Ferrer last week? What price did you get? I always enjoy hearing your winning stories. You can send me a message using the form here

Ones to Watch this week...

This week there are five tournaments across the ATP and WTA Tours – you can view the full list on our tournament Calendar.

Having studied this week’s draws, the formbook and the Outright Winner prices, two outsiders catch the eye at double-figure, Each Way prices...

Two 20/1 shots...

On the women’s tour, last season’s runner-up Katerina Siniakova could prove too big at 20/1 (21.00) for a repeat run to the WTA Bastad final...

The 21-year-old Czech is still at an early point in her career, and after reaching her first two WTA finals last season – and then winning her first title this season – there should be more to come from Siniakova.

Big names Caroline Wozniacki (5/1) and Carla Suarez-Navarro (7/1) are both in the top half of the draw.

Siniakova is in the opposite half of the draw, where last week’s WTA Gstaad winner Kiki Bertens is 5/1 joint-favourite to make it back-to-back clay court titles.

Bertens has a tough enough potential run through her quarter of the draw. With Carina Witthoeft (25/1) first up (Witthoeft beat Bertens in their only previous clay court meeting), along with a possible meeting with last week’s WTA Bucharest winner Irina-Camelia Begu (12/1) or the talented Caroline Garcia (12/1) who gave Johanna Konta a very tough match at Wimbledon.

In Siniakova’s quarter, Anastasija Sevastova is the 6/1 third favourite for the trophy – but it’s worth noting that Siniakova won their only previous meeting, which was on clay just last year.

All things told, Siniakova at 20/1 Each Way looks a price worth taking for last year’s finalist.

On the men’s tour, birthday boy Donald Young is my outside pick at 20/1 (21.00) Each Way in the ATP Atlanta tournament...

The American left-hander turned 28 yesterday. Last year he celebrated his birthday then got to the quarter finals here, and Young is having a decent season with some good performances including a couple of respectable 4th Round runs at the two prestigious North American hard court Masters events in Miami and Indian Wells.

At this smaller tournament in Atlanta, Young has a fair outsider’s chance to reach what would be a third ATP Tour final (both of his previous final appearances also came at hard court events).

Fellow American, Jack Sock is 4/1 and in the top half of the draw. In the bottom half, Young’s main rivals are another American, John Isner (3/1) and surprise Wimbledon quarter finalist Gilles Muller (6/1).

Isner won a third Newport title last week, also at odds of 3/1, and is a three-time champion here in Atlanta. However favourite backers should be aware that Isner has never won both Newport and Atlanta in the same season. The back-to-back workload has proved too much for him in previous attempts.

Last but certainly not least – Young beat Isner for the first time in his career, on hard court in Memphis, earlier this year.

Odds of 20/1 Each Way make Young a long-shot with a bit of potential this week.

Ones to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • WTA Bastad – Katerina Siniakova @ 20/1 Each Way with Paddy Power, Coral

Latest WTA Bastad odds here

  • ATP Atlanta – Donald Young @ 20/1 Each Way with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfred

Latest ATP Atlanta odds here

Plays starts today at 2.00pm UK time in Bastad and 7.00pm in Atlanta.

I’ll be back soon – next week if not before – with another Ones to Watch update for you.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson