OTW Extra Email Archive - July 2017

Two to watch this week - including a 12/1 shot in Newport...

Wednesday 19th July 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • 28/1 Cilic reaches Wimbledon final...
  • Ones to Watch this week...
  • Ferrer in Bastad, Herbert in Newport...

28/1 Cilic reaches Wimbledon final...

The nature of our ‘long shot’ Ones to Watch approach means we often have to wait a good while between payouts. When they come though, they are usually at very nice prices.

Two of our most prominent ‘Ones to Watch’ lists of the year have delivered at the Grand Slams recently, producing a runner-up in the Wimbledon Men’s and the winner of the French Open Women’s...

We were right to have 28/1 Marin Cilic on our radar at Wimbledon – reaching the final for an Each Way payout.

Just as 100/1 youngster Jelena Ostapenko proved ‘One to Watch in 2017’ when winning the French Open in June.

I’ll continue to list my Ones to Watch in my exclusive reports and email updates throughout the season. And I’ll keep you posted regarding our upcoming US Open report and Ones to Watch list next month.

It was good to hear from a couple of readers who profited from Cilic and Ostapenko...

Well done to Joanne and Adrian:

‘...Enjoyed Wimbledon ... backed Cilic at 22/1 Each Way...’

“Enjoyed being with you at Wimbledon, yes, I backed Cilic at 22/1 E/W early and received a payout. Thanks ... Looking forward to the US now.”

Joanne Jones

‘...Great publication ... 100/1 lovely result of £1,000...’

“Great publication and great results, if hadn’t been for your ones to watch I would never of had Ostapenko in French at 100/1....lovely result of £1000 !!! ... looking forward to USA !!”


Ones to Watch this week...

The weekly ATP & WTA Tours are back in action this week – you can view the full list on our tournament Calendar.

Having studied this week’s draws and the results from the opening rounds, two players stand out for me...

Ferrer in Bastad, Herbert in Newport...

At the ATP Bastad clay-court event in Sweden, I feel the veteran David Ferrer is worth following at 15/2 (8.50) or 7/1 (8.00) Each Way.

There’s no doubt that the 35-year-old Spaniard’s best days are behind him now, but he is still a tremendous fighter and cannot be ruled out in a small-field ATP 250 event like this. Especially on clay where he has had plenty of success, with 11 career titles to his name (including two here at Bastad)...

Ferrer has been on a poor run of form in 2017 but there are signs that he could put a bit of a run together soon – he beat Richard Gasquet at Wimbledon, and started this week with a 2-0 win over a more than competent clay court opponent in Federico Delbonis.

Due to his advancing years the head-to-heads should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt, but there is a psychological factor for opponents and with that in mind it’s worth noting that Ferrer’s career head-to-head records against some of this week’s likely opponents are 4-0 v Dustin Brown, 4-0 v Pablo Cuevas, 14-7 v Fernando Verdasco and 6-1 v Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Cuevas and Ramos-Vinolas are 5/1 (6.00) joint-favourites for the title this week but at a bit bigger price I think Ferrer is one to follow.

Seven of the last 12 ATP Bastad titles have been won by a Spaniard – Ferrer is definitely in the running this week for what would be a third trophy win at the venue.

In the final grass court tournament of the summer and the only one held in the USA, I’m happy to ignore the 3/1 (4.00) home favourite John Isner at ATP Newport, and go instead for another big server, at much more appealing double-figure odds...

Pierre-Hugues Herbert plays a nice old-fashioned serve & volley game on grass, and the 26-year-old Frenchman has got a lot more to offer than his record of one solitary ATP final appearance to date (runner-up in Winston-Salem, USA in 2015).

This tournament is traditionally won by usually tall, big servers hitting plenty of Aces. The 6’2” Herbert ticks those boxes well enough for me.

And considering the favourite Isner hasn’t won the title here since 2012 (two trophy wins in six total visits), and second-favourite and 2016 winner 4/1 (5.00) Ivo Karlovic is in the opposite side of the draw and can’t meet Herbert until the final – the stage looks sets here for a relative outsider to get to the final.

The 12/1 (13.00) Each Way price on Herbert looks value to me: he is 4/11 (1.36) favourite to win his next match and would then be favourite to win his quarter final match, too. Isner would potentially await in the semi finals – at that point, odds of 12/1 Each Way would be giving you 6/1 (7.00) for Herbert to win that match, which is likely to prove way bigger than the match-day odds would be.

Ones to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP Bastad – David Ferrer @ 15/2 Each Way with Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet, 7/1 in general

Latest ATP Bastad odds here

  • ATP Newport – Pierre-Hugues Herbert @ 12/1 Each Way with Coral, Ladbrokes, 10/1 general

Latest ATP Newport odds here

Plays resumes today at 1.00pm UK time in Bastad and 4.00pm in Newport.

I’ll be back next week with more Ones to Watch for us.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson