OTW Extra Email Archive - June 2017
Barbora too big at 33/1...
Tuesday 20th June 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Back Barbora in Birmingham at 33/1...
There’s no A+B method for picking winners of tennis tournaments. Of course there isn’t. But it can pay to latch onto players with a good record at certain events...
Sometimes the player loves the venue – the facilities, the courts, the playing surface, the organisers, the city...
Sometimes a good win at a certain tournament can give a player a confidence boost that they don’t get elsewhere – a kind of ‘muscle memory’ if you like; a happy hunting ground.
We’ve profited from a couple of examples like this over the last couple of years. Most recently with Victor Estrella Burgos winning the ATP Quito title in February. He’s won that tournament three years running, but has never won any other ATP title.
One player that I like this week is Barbora Strycova in Birmingham...
Barbora isn’t a player that immediately springs to mind as a grass court specialist – but she does have excellent net and volleying skills, honed from plenty of experience on the Doubles circuit (Strycova is ranked Top 20 in the world for Singles, and Top 10 for Doubles).
And significantly for me here, Strycova has a great record in Birmingham. She reached the final last year, and was also runner-up in 2014.
Last year the Czech player beat Coco Vandeweghe and Karolina Pliskova at this tournament – two of the best servers on the WTA Tour and two players well suited to grass.
Add in the fact that Strycova reached the Wimbledon quarter finals in 2014, only losing to eventual champion Petra Kvitova who was in red-hot form that summer – and Barbora’s grass court credentials are actually pretty good...
There are a few bigger names in Barbora’s half of the Birmingham draw this week, but at the prices available I am happy to overlook the likes of Johanna Konta (currently 4/1) and Garbine Muguruza (8/1) in the build-up to the big one at Wimbledon.
My simple assessment here is that odds of 22/1, 25/1 and 33/1 Each Way look too big for a player who has made the final in two of her last three visits to Birmingham...
One to Watch:
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Latest WTA Birmingham odds here
Play starts from 11am – the Outright Winner markets will be up until then, and back up again after the day’s play ends.
You can watch the tournament live on Eurosport.
Enjoy the tennis...
P.S
I’ll be back at the end of the week with your exclusive free Wimbledon Ones to Watch Report...
Best wishes,
