OTW Extra Email Archive - June 2019
French Open update – 40/1 Vondrousova in the semi finals…
Wednesday 5th June 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
French Open update…
The Men’s French Open is looking like business as usual. Rafael Nadal plays Roger Federer in the semi finals. With Novak Djokovic the favourite to meet the winner in the final.
The Women’s event however has been wide open…
Eight of the Top 10 players are out, including World No.1 Naomi Osaka. And five of the Last 8 left standing in the draw were making their first ever appearance in a French Open quarter final.
The stage is set for a big-odds player getting to the final…
40/1 Vondrousova in the semis…
Last month we flagged up two women as Ones to Watch for the French Open.
Anett Kontaveit (40/1) crashed out in the 1st Round.
But our other 40/1 pick, Marketa Vondrousova, is through to the semi finals…
After a 7-6, 7-5 win over Petra Martic in the quarter finals last night, Vondrousova is on a five-match streak at Roland Garros without dropping a set.
If you backed the 19-year-old Czech in the Outright Winner market at last month’s top price 50/1 (51.00) with Skybet or the generally available 40/1 (41.00), you’re sitting on a bet that’s now trading at 9/2 (5.50).
Having got this far, the next move is to make sure you lock in a profit or at the very least protect your stakes…
As it stands…
Treating the two Ones to Watch picks as 1 point Each Way stakes (total stake 2 pts per player), that’s a total of 4 points staked across Kontaveit and Vondrousova.
Having backed Vondrousova at 40/1 Each Way, with terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places, if she wins the semi final and reaches the final you’ll have:
And if Vondrousova lifts the trophy:
Those numbers make happy reading. But there’s the small matter of the semi final hurdle to overcome first…
Protect your stakes…
Vondrousova’s semi-final opponent is Johanna Konta. The match takes place on Thursday.
In the Match Winner market, Konta is 4/5 (1.80) to beat Vondrousova (William Hill).
Backing Konta as a saver bet allows you to cover your original French Open stakes, should you wish to do so, or to ensure an overall profit – whatever happens.
In order to break-even by recovering those 4 pts staked on the French Open picks:
Or, in order to guarantee 4 pts profit overall:
We’re in a good position here. With a 40/1 shot in the semi finals. And the Each Way part of the bet promising a 20/1 payout for reaching the final, that effectively means you’ve got 20/1 for Vondrousova to beat Konta.
It’s your call…
Everyone likes to bet their own way. I know some people who live by the sword and swear by a ‘never trade, no savers’ approach. Others prefer to ‘green up’ as soon and as often as possible.
Having got this far, my recommendation would be to at the very least cover your original stakes by backing Konta in the semi final match.
P.S
Should Vondrousova win tomorrow and reach Saturday’s final, you’ll be guaranteed a profit either way – and you might want to then even things up by backing her opponent in the final, too.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson