OTW Extra Email Archive - March 2017
My 14/1 and 20/1 picks for Indian Wells...
Thursday 9th March 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Serena out of Indian Wells...
As promised, I’m looking at the Indian Wells draws today. This is one of the most prestigious events of the year, and there have been a couple of significant developments since I wrote to you on Monday...
Women’s favourite Serena Williams is out. She’s withdrawn from both Indian Wells and also the upcoming Miami Open – ruling out any chance of the ‘sunshine double’ for the Australian Open champ.
Serena’s absence means the Women’s draw looks wide open...
World No.3 Karolina Pliskova is in the top half of the draw and has been made the 4/1 favourite. World No.2 Angelique Kerber is in the bottom half, and will return to No.1 soon due to Serena’s injury layoff. Kerber is the 13/2 (7.50) second favourite here.
I’m happy to oppose those two...
Pliskova has made huge strides in recent months, after breaking through with a US Open final appearance at the end of last summer. However I’m not sure I quite trust her at short favourite prices yet – especially as she has only been installed as favourite here because of Serena’s withdrawal announcement.
Kerber has had an uneasy time since first reaching No.1 at the end of last year – and this will be her 10th attempt at a title since winning that US Open final against Pliskova.
See below for my two picks at more attractive prices.
Tough draw in the Men’s...
In the Men’s, the 4th Quarter of the draw is jam-packed with talent – take your pick from Novak Djokovic (3/1), Roger Federer (10/1) and Rafael Nadal (9/1). Not to mention the younger danger-men Nick Kyrgios (33/1), Alexander Zverev (50/1) and Juan-Martin Del Potro (33/1)...
With all that going on in the bottom part of the draw, Andy Murray is in the top section and 9/4 (3.25) favourite for what would be his first ever Indian Wells title. Murray has had great success on North American hard courts, but not so much here in the desert.
Stan Wawrinka (14/1) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (40/1) are potential threats to Murray in the top half.
I’ve mentioned a lot of big names there, so it won’t come as a surprise to you that I’m leaving the Men’s event alone.
But with Serena out, the Women’s market looks the place to be...
Ones to Watch at 14/1 and 20/1...
Having gone through the Women’s Indian Wells draw, four players made my initial shortlist. And on further investigation, two tick the box for me for ‘Ones to Watch’ picks this week.
The four in my notes are...
Elina Svitolina (9/1), who is in the 1st Quarter of the draw with Pliskova. Svitolina is on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list, and was a 10/1 winner in Dubai recently. She looks set to become an established Top 10 player, and looks to have a taste for the big stage, but her 0-5 career head-to-head record v Pliskova puts me off this time. Svitolina can be a little wobbly on her second serve, and the big-hitting Pliskova is just the kind of player who can step in and thump those soft second serves past her.
Next up is Johanna Konta (14/1), and I like her as an Each Way bet here. She is also in the top half but can’t meet Pliskova until the semi finals. Konta is 1-5 v the big-serving Czech, but won their most recent meeting, on hard court, and has a solid and improving all-round game. Konta has won 9 of her last 10 matches this season, only losing to Serena. In an open-looking tournament like this, Konta fits the bill as One to Watch.
In the bottom half of the draw, two players worthy of note in the 3rd Quarter are Simona Halep (16/1) and Caroline Wozniacki (20/1)...
Halep has a good record in Indian Wells – quarter final last year (lost to Serena), final the year before (won) and semi final the year before. But this will be her first tournament since the end of January, having missed over a month with a knee injury. She might be a better prospect in Miami next up, if her comeback shows promising signs here.
Wozniacki on the other hand looks in good shape right now, and the former No.1 has been showing some of her best form for years. She’s reached the final in her last two tournaments, and won two titles in the backend of last season – along with reaching the US Open semi final.
All those achievements were on hard court and the Dane has done well on the surface in Indian Wells before, too – a finalist three times, most recently in 2013, with one Indian Wells trophy in her cabinet. Wozniacki is consistent and looks to be in a ‘good place’ at the moment. At the prices she looks One to Watch here, too.
One to Watch:
WTA Indian Wells (BNP Paribas Open) – Outright Winner
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Play continues from 7pm tonight, live on BT Sport – and the tournament runs until next Sunday.
I’ll be back next week with an update, and a look ahead to Miami and the busy spring & summer tennis schedule...
Best wishes,
