OTW Extra Email Archive - May 2019
French Open – One to Watch at 50/1…
Thursday 2nd May 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Grand Slam outsiders…
We’re gradually putting together a book of Grand Slam bets for this year.
Over the last few months we’ve been adding players for the big titles – always at big prices…
At the tail end of 2018 we flagged up youngsters Amanda Anisimova and Borna Coric as Ones to Watch at the Grand Slams in 2019.
And since then we’ve added three players for Wimbledon in particular. With Belinda Bencic (120/1), Tomas Berdych (100/1) and Nick Kyrgios (30/1) all picked out as early-bird, outsider picks for the big one at SW19 this summer.
At these kind of prices, we don’t land a Grand Slam winner every single year. But our Ones to Watch lists have certainly served us well in the past. The likes of Jelena Ostapenko (won French Open 2017 @ 100/1) and Naomi Osaka (won US Open 2018 @ 50/1, now World No.1) are two that spring to mind.
The next Grand Slam on the schedule is the French Open, which takes place in Paris starting from 26th May. Time to get our first exciting up-and-coming player in the book…
One to Watch – Anett Kontaveit…
Anett Kontaveit was one of five women on our Ones to Watch in 2018 list. That season she made steady progress up the rankings, from No.34 to a year end No.21. And reached one final in 2018, WTA Wuhan, where she was a 100/1 runner-up.
Like Naomi Osaka, who made the big Grand Slam breakthrough a year after appearing on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list, Kontaveit looks on the edge of doing something special this summer…
The 23-year-old Estonian has started 2019 in quietly menacing form. And importantly for her French Open price, that form hasn’t quite converted itself into a second career WTA title (yet). But the signs are that Anett will be making more finals soon…
In her last two tournaments, Kontaveit has made the semi finals at the Miami Open, which is one of the biggest tournaments on the calendar bar the four Grand Slams. And followed that up by reaching the final in Stuttgart in her first clay-court event of the year, as a 28/1 shot.
Last season on clay – this exact time last year – Anett’s form included semi finals in both Stuttgart and then the big event in Rome. In both instances, she was only beaten by the player that went on to win the trophy.
At the French Open, Kontaveit has improved year on year: 2015 – Qualifying, 2016 – 1st Round, 2017 – 2nd Round, 2018 – 4th Round.
The 4th Round is one win off a quarter final place at a Grand Slam. Last year we saw another of our Ones to Watch players made the first breakthrough to quarter finals at this level, with Daria Kasatkina getting to that stage at the French Open and then Wimbledon, back to back. I’m anticipating a similar move from Kontaveit – if not better…
This year Anett has already hit a career-high ranking of No.14. Her coach Nigel Sears has previously helped guide three players into the world’s Top 10, including Ana Ivanovic. And since Sears started work with Kontaveit last year, he’s said plenty of good things about her ambition, work-rate and attitude.
A career-to-date match win-loss record of 80-35 on clay makes this her best surface. And that 70% win-rate is a serious piece of form.
At 23 years of age – which happens to be the average age of women’s tournament winners so far this season – Kontaveit is One to Watch right now. And with the French Open on the horizon, odds of 50/1 Each Way for Roland Garros look good for an outsider bet.
I’ll be back later in the month with much more on the French Open.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson