OTW Extra Email Archive - November 2017

ATP World Tour Finals - my 11/1 pick for London…

Thursday 9th November 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP World Tour Finals start Sunday…
  • Ones to Watch this week…
  • 11/1 Dimitrov can make his mark in London…

ATP World Tour Finals start Sunday…

The annual end of season ATP World Tour Finals takes place at London’s O2 Arena, starting this Sunday….

The tournament is split into two groups of four players, in a round robin group format. The top two players from each group then go through to the semi finals.

Ones to Watch this week…

The event is played on an indoor hard court, with plenty of bright lights and glamour around the venue for this ATP showpiece.

The names on show aren’t of the usual household name scale (with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic both out until next season).

And this tournament has a bit of a history of falling flat until the final; sometimes a couple of the players on show are really arriving out of steam from a long hard season.

Sticking with his successful late-career longevity plan, Roger Federer has taken a bit of time out to rest his body and prepare for his latest assault on a prestigious trophy.

Federer was seen earlier this week beating Andy Murray at an exhibition (friendly) match in Glasgow – dressed in a kilt…

That suggests all is pretty well with Roger and I’ll be avoiding his group. He’s the odds-on favourite for the trophy but here at Ones to Watch we like to look for players at more attractive Each Way ‘outsider’ prices…

On the other side of the group draw, Rafael Nadal is the tournament second favourite and you could argue that the current World No.1 is a bit of value at 4/1.

However, Rafa pulled out injured in the Paris Masters a week ago and then said he would “do his best” to be fit and ready for London…

Rafa’s group looks the one to target.

Here is the full list of players and their tournament Outright Winner prices (decimal odds in brackets):

Roger Federer         4/6 (1.67)
Alexander Zverev    8/1 (9.00)
Marin Cilic              12/1 (13.00)
Jack Sock              22/1 (23.00)

Rafael Nadal           4/1 (5.00)
Dominic Thiem        22/1 (23.00)
Grigor Dimitrov       11/1 (12.00)
David Goffin           20/1 (21.00)

11/1 Dimitrov can make his mark in London…

Grigor Dimitrov at 11/1 is the player that catches my eye the most here.

The talented Bulgarian has made big improvements in the last couple of years, appearing to ‘grow up’ and become much more focused and reliable on court.

He’s reached four ATP finals this season, all on hard courts – with two of them indoors.

Dimitrov started the year in great form, winning 10 matches in a row in a run that gave him the ATP Brisbane title and took him to the semi final of the Australian Open, where he came agonisingly close to beating Nadal in a five-set classic.

Grigor has had two more close defeats against Rafa in recent weeks, on both occasions taking a set off the Spaniard before eventually missing out, 2 sets to 1. If Nadal isn’t fully on the ball this week, there’s no reason why Dimitrov can’t go one better this time.

And Dimitrov could still get through the group without having to beat Nadal…

He will be odds-on favourite to beat both David Goffin and Dominic Thiem.

Dimitrov has a 6-1 career head-to-head record v Goffin. And it’s important to note that Goffin’s season doesn’t end here – the Belgian No.1 needs to keep himself fit and able for the upcoming Davis Cup final between Belgium and France this month.

Thiem has a 2-1 record v Dimitrov, but Dimitrov won their only meeting on hard courts this season. And Thiem has a record of doing better in the first half of the season, flagging somewhat in the second half. Coming into London this weekend, the Austrian youngster has lost 6 of his last 8 matches.

All things considered, if anyone is going to deny the Federer v Nadal final next weekend, I make 11/1 Dimitrov the man most likely to do it.

One to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP World Tour Finals – Grigor Dimitrov @ 11/1 with 10Bet, BetVictor, SunBets, NetBet

Also available Each Way at 10/1 with Skybet, Bet365, Betfred, Betway, Stan James.

Latest ATP World Tour Finals odds here

I’ll be back next week with a Ones to Watch update for you.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson