OTW Extra Email Archive - November 2018
ATP World Tour Finals – 25/1 is too big…
Tuesday 6th November 2018
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Kevin means business…
The season comes to an end next week with the ATP World Tour Finals at London’s 02 Arena…
Last year saw two relative outsiders from the eight-man field get to the final, with our 11/1 pick Grigor Dimitrov beating 20/1 David Goffin for the biggest title of his career.
Those two aren’t in London this time – loss of form (Dimitrov) and injury (Goffin) have put pay to their chances. But I fancy another underdog to do well next week – and Kevin Anderson is one of the best ‘underdogs’ on the circuit…
The unfashionable 6’8” South African is playing the best tennis of his career since turning 30. He’s now 32 years old and has reached two of the last five Grand Slam finals – the US Open 2017 as a 150/1 rank outsider, and then as our 50/1 ‘One to Watch’ at Wimbledon this summer.
This season Kevin has scaled the heights to a career-best No.5 in the world rankings (currently 6th). A big week at the 02 Arena could see him break the Top 4 for the first time.
A trophy win in London would be a career-best title for Anderson. This season he’s already made five finals – with his two tournament wins coming at indoor hard courts.
One to Watch in London – Anderson at 25/1…
I was initially struck by Anderson’s early price of 25/1. The draw has since been made – and the price remained. Rafael Nadal pulled out – and still the price didn’t budge.
Clearly, the bookies are expecting a final showdown between 8/13 (1.62) favourite Novak Djokovic and 9/4 (3.25) Roger Federer. However this round-robin Group stage format can spring a few surprises, and the big names aren’t immune from end-of-season injury setbacks, too.
Here are the Outright Winner prices. The eight players are divided into two Groups. The top two from each Group go through to the Semi Finals:
Novak Djokovic 8/13 (1.62)
Alexander Zverev 11/1 (12.00)
Marin Cilic 12/1 (13.00)
John Isner 28/1 (29.00)
Roger Federer 9/4 (3.25)
Kei Nishikori 22/1 (23.00)
Dominic Thiem 25/1 (26.00)
Kevin Anderson 25/1 (26.00)
Anderson won Vienna (indoors) last month, franking his status as one of the form players on the tour over the last 12 months. He starts with a Group match against Dominic Thiem (25/1) who has faltered at the Group stage in this event twice before.
With fellow Group member Kei Nishikori (22/1) starting against Federer, the Anderson 25/1 ante post price is the one we are likely to see the best benefit from, by backing him to make a fast start from day one.
As I’ve said before, Anderson is one of the best fighters on the tour – you won’t see many players more focused and pumped up between points and during matches. Odds of 25/1 almost write him off as an also-ran here. But Kevin will firmly believe that he is here to win.
ATP World Tour Finals – Nitto ATP Finals
BET: Kevin Anderson @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Bet365, Boylesports, 22/1 (23.00) Skybet, BetVictor, Betway
Play starts on Sunday.
Enjoy the tennis…