OTW Extra Email Archive - November 2018
Season Review – big prices and rising stars…
Monday 19th November 2018
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Favourites beaten in London…
The 2018 tennis season came to a close on Sunday night, with 21-year-old Alexander Zverev winning the ATP World Tour Finals.
The 11/1 German beat the two favourites en route, taking out 9/4 (3.25) Roger Federer in the semi finals and then odds-on pre-tournament 8/13 (1.62) market leader Novak Djokovic in the final.
Zverev becomes the first player to beat both Federer and Djokovic in the same week at the end-of-season event. That fact suggests that the best man won.
Last year we were on the winning outsider in London, with 11/1 Grigor Dimitrov lifting the trophy. This time our 25/1 One to Watch outsider selection, Kevin Anderson, gave a good account of himself – but fell one win short of securing a place payout. Anderson reached the semi finals, losing to World No.1 Djokovic. During the week Kevin’s 25/1 price dropped as low as 7/1.
No big winner for us at the 02 Arena this year then, but we weren’t far off the mark in our latest hunt for a big-price underdog.
Big prices are where it’s at with our Ones to Watch picks. Once again, the overall season numbers show that when it comes to tackling the tournament Outright Winner markets, going after players at big Each Way prices is very much the right tactic …
Double-figure prices the way to go…
I’ve been doing some end-of-season number crunching. Throughout the year I’ve recorded the pre-tournament prices of the winners and runners-up in every event on the 2018 tennis calendar.
This consists of the weekly ATP (Men’s) and WTA (Women’s) full-level tournaments, and the four Grand Slam events.
The findings make encouraging reading for big-odds backers like us…
From 126 tournaments, there were:
And with Each Way betting in mind – where the standard terms are a 1/2 odds payout for reaching the final – there were:
In total:
In other words...
In 2018, players at double-figure pre-tournament Outright Winner prices won tournaments, reached finals and gave Each Way payouts – more often than players at single-figure prices.
And the difference between the two categories can be huge...
The shortest price tournament winner this season was odds-on at just 4/9 (1.44). That was Rafael Nadal at the Rome Masters.
The biggest-priced winner was a whopping 250/1 shot, with Mirza Basic winning the ATP Sofia title.
Players priced at 100/1 and 80/1 were among 19 rank outsiders lifting trophies at odds of 50/1+ (15%), as well as 29 runners-up at odds of 50/1+ (23%).
Those percentages are up this year, from 8% of winners @ 50/1+ and 18% of runners-up at 50/1+ in 2017.
This season, 62% of all finalists went off at double-figure prices. In 2017 that figure was 59%, and in 2016 it was 55%.
Over half of all tournament winners and runners-up this year paid out at double-figure odds. Providing Outright Winner and Each Way payouts, more often and for greater returns than by backing short-price favourites...
That’s all very encouraging for our big-price Ones to Watch picks. We are hunting in the right areas.
The pattern continues in the Grand Slams...
In the Grand Slams, all four Men’s titles were won by the big names at single-figure prices. Federer took the Australian Open, Nadal the French Open and Djokovic won Wimbledon & the US Open.
But that’s only half the story...
The four runners-up in the 2018 Men’s Grand Slam finals went off at pre-tournament double-figure prices of 33/1 (Marin Cilic, Australian Open), 10/1 (Dominic Thiem, French Open), 50/1 (Kevin Anderson, Wimbledon) and 16/1 (Juan-Martin Del Potro, US Open).
In the Women’s, there were four different Grand Slam winners – and we’ve now seen eight different Women’s Grand Slam winners in a row since the start of 2017. The big prices this time were 50/1 Naomi Osaka winning the US Open and 50/1 Sloane Stephens runner-at the French Open.
Each of this year’s Grand Slam finals contained a player at a double-figure price. Overall, eight of the 16 Grand Slam finalists in 2018 were at double-figure prices (50%).
Young guns breaking through…
A couple of the big-price players mentioned above are familiar names from our various Ones to Watch lists and free reports…
We didn’t hit the highs of 2017, when 40/1 Sloane Stephens won the US Open, 28/1 Marin Cilic was runner-up at Wimbledon – and 100/1 youngster Jelena Ostapenko won the French Open.
But in our 2018 reports we had 50/1 Kevin Anderson finish runner-up at Wimbledon. And price-wise, the highlight from our pre-season youngsters to watch list was Anett Kontaveit who was a 100/1 runner-up at the WTA Wuhan event.
Honourable mentions this year go to Hyeon Chung, who was a 500/1 semi-finalist at the Australian Open, before getting injured. And to Ashleigh Barty, who made three finals and won two titles, including the end-of-season WTA Elite Trophy (10/1).
Also, one young man who has played probably the most exciting tennis from all our Ones to Watch in 2018, Denis Shapovalov. The Canadian youngster is just 19 years of age. He’s ranked No.27 in the world, one of just two teenagers in the Men’s Top 100. This talented left-hander is yet to reach a first final on the main tour, but it will come…
The success of our 2017 list shows that the young players I flag up aren’t just for that year. They are potential stars of the future and the big breakthrough could come a season or two down the line…
From our 2017 list, Alexander Zverev has continued to win trophies in 2018. At 21, the German is the youngest player in the Top 20 (ranked No.4 in the world). Zverev made six finals last season, and six more this term, culminating in that ATP World Tour Finals win. The next step for Zverev: a breakthrough run to a Grand Slam semi or final.
A couple more of our ‘class of 2017’ are making excellent progress, too. These three all finish 2018 at new career highs in the world rankings…
Karen Khachanov (now aged 22, ranked No.11) won the ATP Paris Masters at 40/1.
Kyle Edmund (aged 23, ranked No.14) reached the Australian Open semi finals this year, and reached his first two ATP finals – lifting a first career trophy in Antwerp.
Borna Coric (aged 22, ranked No.12) was a 50/1 winner in Halle and a 100/1 runner-up in Shanghai – beating Federer at both events. We’ve already on Coric for the Australian Open 2019 at fancy early-doors prices.
In the Women’s, Naomi Osaka (aged 21, ranked No.5) won the US Open this year as a 50/1 outsider, and the prestigious WTA Indian Wells title at a massive 125/1. Clearly, Naomi has a taste for the bigtime.
Daria Kasatkina (aged 21, ranked No.10) ends 2018 with her highest ranking to date. She was a 22/1 winner at her home tournament in Moscow, an 80/1 runner-up (to Osaka) at Indian Wells and a 40/1 runner-up in Dubai. Add to that her first Grand Slam quarter finals (French Open & Wimbledon), and Kasatkina is making good strides with 2019 on the horizon…
Back to our 2018 list and – injury permitting – the youngsters from that list most likely to kick on in 2019 in my opinion would be Shapovalov, Chung and Kontaveit.
Ones to Watch in 2019 – coming soon…
I’ve got plenty in store for the new season. It comes round fast. The 2019 season kicks off before the New Year’s Eve fireworks have even gone off. There are tournaments in China, India, Australia and Qatar, kicking off on the last two days of December.
I’ll be in touch before then with plenty of Ones to Watch info for you, setting us up nicely for 2019…
Once again, we’ll have a ‘youngsters to watch’ list to start off the New Year. As well as free reports throughout the year, including the Grand Slams and other key points punctuating the season. Along with free Ones to Watch EXTRA email updates keeping you posted with the latest tournament, prices & my formbook observations.
If you stand still in this game, you’re going backwards. I’m continuing to work on improving my methods, digging deep with my research, hunting for the young, overlooked or underrated players. And most importantly of all – the big prices…
Enjoy the Christmas run-in. I’ll be back in touch soon.
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson