OTW Extra Email Archive - November 2023
ATP Finals: The case for the outsiders - at 20/1 and 33/1...
Monday 13th November 2023
Good morning. With the 2023 tennis season coming to an end this month, I'll soon be going to work on my new FREE Ones to Watch in 2024 report for you. Ready for publication at New Year, in time for the very first tournaments of 2024...
Before then, we have the small matter of the men's ATP Finals taking place this week. With all the matches live on Amazon Prime Video, and live streaming available with bookies such as Bet365...
Here's a FREE peek at the info and advice I've sent to my Ones to Watch members this morning...
The ATP Finals pits the year's Top 8 men's players in a big-money battle for the end-of-season grand prize...
We have two groups of four, played in a round-robin format. I'm on record as saying I'm not a fan of 'group stage' tennis. In every other tournament, if you lose a match - you're out. But can get a second bite of the cherry here at the ATP Tour Finals...
And for the 'up for it' young Dane, Holger Rune, that means odds of 33/1 appeal for him as a super-talented underdog in this glamour event indoors in Turin.
Rune started at 20/1. He lost an enthralling three-hour, three-set clash with 11/10 (2.1) title favourite and world no.1 Novak Djokovic last night. If you watched that match, you'll have seen there's not as much between these two right now as those prices would suggest.
A drift to 33/1 is worth taking note of today, and making a move before Rune's group play again on Tuesday. The 20-year-old has a 2-0 career head-to-record against each of the other two opponents in his group, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and home-crowd favourite, Jannik Sinner.
From performances I've seen recently, I'd say the underdog value is there for Rune this week. This kid believes he can win. You can't put a price on that attitude.
Zverev has done it before...
In the other group, which gets underway today. The outsider to follow on the prices has to be 20/1 shot Alexander Zverev.
Some players just come alive at certain tournaments. And the resurgent German - who has been quietly and steadily improving since returning from a terrible injury sustained last year - has won this title twice (from just five attempts).
The 26-year-old is 3-3 against today's star-name opponent, Carlos Alcaraz. Zverev certainly has more indoor hard-court form under his belt coming into this big trip to Italy.
After that, 50-50 looking group clashes against Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, with the two Russians both shorter than Sascha in the betting, suggest that the value is with the 20/1 German...
Nitto ATP Finals
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places)
Holger Rune @ 33/1 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral
Alexander Zverev @ 20/1 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, 888 Sport
Play starts from 1.30pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during the matches.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone