OTW Extra Email Archive - October 2017

Time for a 66/1 shot in Switzerland...

Monday 23rd October 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Ones to Watch this week...
  • Time for a 66/1 shot in Switzerland...
  • Another 25/1 French fancy...

Ones to Watch this week…

The women’s season is coming to an end, with the WTA World Tour Finals taking place in Singapore this week.

With eight players competing in two Groups of four, it’s not your usual tennis tournament format – and I’m not a fan of it.

All eight players went off at pretty similar prices with nothing too juicy in terms of double-figures or Each Way opportunities.

If anyone does catch my eye as the Singapore event progresses throughout the week, I’ll let you know.

Today though two men’s events get our attention, with the European indoor hard court season under way...

Time for a 66/1 shot in Switzerland...

The ATP Basel headlines usually centre on Roger Federer. The man many call the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) was once a ball-boy at this his ‘home’ tournament in Switzerland...

Roger has reached the final here in his last 10 appearances, lifting the trophy 7 times. No surprise then that he’s 10/11 (1.91) at best to win again this week.

With Federer in the top half of the draw, it makes sense to look to the bottom half for an Each Way contender at an attractive price...

Mischa Zverev is one to watch at big odds – he’s a best price 66/1. The 30-year-old German has had one of his best ever seasons on the tour – including reaching the ATP Geneva final, and knocking Andy Murray out of the Australian Open.

Zverev’s unorthodox (these days) serve & volley game can cause many opponents problems, and being left-handed only adds to his ‘dangerous outsider’ credentials.

Mischa made the semi finals here last year; his only previous appearance in Basel. He won 5 matches in that run, coming through qualifying and beating Stan Wawrinka in the main draw. Zverev was only beaten by eventual tournament winner Marin Cilic, taking the big-serving Croat the full distance to three sets.

Cilic (7/1) and Zverev (66/1) could potentially meet in the quarter finals this week. For me, the value is with the German underdog.

Another 25/1 French fancy...

Moving on to the ATP Vienna tournament and 25/1 Lucas Pouille could be one to come through an open looking draw featuring several big (but not the biggest) names.

The likes of Alexander Zverev (Mischa’s younger and higher ranked brother), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Grigor Dimitrov are all single-figure prices.

I like the look of Lucas Pouille lurking in the bottom half of the draw. He’s reached an indoor final in Marseille this year, and won the indoor title at Metz as a 10/1 One to Watch pick for us last year.

Top 10 player Dominic Thiem will have the Austrian crowd cheering for him and is near the top of the Outright Winner betting at 11/1. He’s a potential quarter final opponent for Pouille in the bottom half of the draw but it’s encouraging to know that Pouille has a 2-0 career head-to-head record v Thiem (including that Metz final last season).

Last week we backed another ‘erratic’ Frenchman at 25/1 in the shape of Benoit Paire, who came a cropper in his opening match. That’s the danger with flamboyant/ fiery players like these two – but Pouille arguably has his head screwed on more than Paire and crucially, the big odds available take this factor into consideration and make it worth the risk.

One to Watch this week:

Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP Basel – Swiss Indoors – Mischa Zverev @ 66/1 with Boylesports, 50/1 Sportingbet, 40/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway

Latest ATP Basel odds here

  • ATP Vienna – Erste Bank Open – Lucas Pouille @ 25/1 with Boylesports, SunBets, Bet365, SportingBet, Stan James

Latest ATP Vienna odds here

Play starts in Vienna at 12pm and in Basel at 6pm, UK time. Zverev and Pouille both play their opening matches on Tuesday.

I’ll be back next week with more Ones to Watch.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson