OTW Extra Email Archive - October 2022
Big prices expected in Paris next week...
Wednesday 26th October 2022
What a match…
Did you get a chance to watch any of the Dominic Thiem v Tommy Paul match yesterday evening?
It’s available as a replay on Amazon Prime Video if you missed it.
To echo what the commentators said during the live broadcast – one of the matches of the year, for sure…
Playing in front of his home crowd in Austria, and competing at ATP Vienna for the first time in two years. Thiem started slow, losing his first two service games, and went on to lose the opening set, 2-6. The former world no.3, slowly but steadily making his way back on the tour this season after a wrist injury, upped his game in the second set. And that’s when the entertainment really began – with a series of relentless, exhilarating, big-hitting rallies that continued for the next couple of hours…
The home favourite – roared on by a noisy, partisan crowd – clawed his way back, eventually winning 2-6, 7-6, 7-6 in a shade under three hours. Saving two match points in the deciding final-set tiebreak. After converting the first match point of his own, Thiem fell to the floor in a mixture of exhaustion and elation.
For anyone who saw that match, the takeaway message is clear: Dominic Thiem is back. He might be ranked outside the world’s top 100 right now (no.113). But make no mistake – if he stays fit and continues to rebuild his fitness and confidence, then the 29-year-old will be one to watch next season. And that includes the Grand Slams.
The winner of the US Open in 2020, and a runner-up at the Australian Open the same year (where Ones to Watch members were on him at 22/1 Each Way). Thiem is also a two-time French Open finalist – and of course, there’s no shame in losing in a final at Roland Garros to Rafael Nadal, which is what happened to Dominic on both occasions in Paris.
Talking of Paris, but away from la terre battue, there’s a massive tournament coming up in the City of Love next week…
A history of shocks at the Rolex Paris Masters…
The Rolex Paris Masters, the last ATP 1000 ‘Masters’ event of the season, and the only one to be played on indoor hard courts, takes place next week at the Accor Arena. Thiem, a semi-finalist in 2018, has requested a Wild Card into the draw.
Coming as it does at the end of a gruelling season each year, this men’s event has a history of producing big-price shocks and upsets…
Of course, the Paris Masters roll of honour has its fair share of star-name winners. Novak Djokovic has taken the trophy five times in nine years. But that’s far from the whole story…
Just look at this list of big-odds finalists from recent years:
Plenty of reasons there for us to be licking our lips with the prospect of a speculative Each Way pick or two next week.
Not to mention the fact that this season overall, 10% of tournaments have produced a 100/1+ finalist (12 out of 118 events across the ATP & WTA full-level tours and the four Grand Slams). Which is bang-on the one-in-10 average for 100/1+ finalists, which we’ve seen as an exciting trend for five years and counting…
A big week coming up – don’t miss it…
As well as the men in Paris, there’s also a massive tournament on the women’s tour next week. With the WTA Finals in Fort Worth, USA. This event sees the year’s top eight players competing for one of the most prestigious titles in the game.
On my members-only Ones to Watch service, I’ll be sending out my first picks for the week, either late on Sunday night, or first thing Monday morning…
BUT…
The only way to get that advice sent to your inbox is to become a Ones to Watch member. And you can do that by signing-up right here.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson