Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018
14/1 Garcia has clay credentials...
Tuesday 3rd April 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The lob-sided Volvo Car Open…
Our WTA Monterrey pick got off to a good start last night, with 25/1 Sachia Vickery winning her opening match 6-1, 6-4 against fellow American, Irina Falconi.
This week’s other tournament, the Volvo Car Open, takes place in Charleston, USA…
The overnight news from the States is that last week’s Miami Open winner (and 2016 Charleston champion) Sloane Stephens has withdrawn from the event.
Stephens had been as short as 6/1 to follow up with another trophy win this week.
With one of the favourites gone it’s interesting to see how the betting looks this morning…
Sloane was in the top half of the draw. But rather than her absence resulting in prices crashing for the players around her, the market has the bottom half of the draw as the most likely provider of the Charleston winner this week.
Seven of the top 10 players in the Outright Winner betting are in the bottom half. It’s a busy looking section including last year’s winner Daria Kasatkina (7/1), last month’s Indian Wells winner Naomi Osaka (7/1) and World No.10 Petra Kvitova (also 7/1).
Our friend Kasatkina was 28/1 when she won her maiden WTA title here last year, and was 80/1 when we backed her in Indian Wells. Odds of 7/1 today make her much harder to back.
Osaka too looks plenty short enough as it remains to be seen how quickly she can build on that big Indian Wells win (where she was 125/1).
Kvitova has won two titles already this season but only one of her last 16 final appearances has been at a clay-court event.
The ‘green clay’ of Charleston isn’t your traditional European or South American clay court – a bit faster and less sludgy, let’s say. But still clay is not Kvitova’s favoured surface, something underlined by the fact that this experienced player is making her first ever appearance at Charleston this week.
14/1 Garcia has clay credentials…
Back to the top half of the draw and the three players in the top 10 of the betting there are Madison Keys (7/1), Johanna Konta (9/1 at best) and Caroline Garcia at 14/1…
Keys made the final here in 2015 but as we noted when opposing her last week, 2018 is not going well for her so far. Keys was last seen retiring injured in Miami.
Konta is another player not known for a love of clay courts. Her only previous visit to Charleston was in qualifying way back in 2011, and none of her five WTA finals to date have come on anything but hard courts or grass.
The Brit has also been struggling for form for a few months now; Konta has failed to win more than two consecutive matches since her run to the Wimbledon semi finals last summer.
With the draw and betting looking the way it does, Caroline Garcia stands out for me at 14/1 Each Way…
The Frenchwoman had a great end to 2017, propelling her into the Top 10, and she now sits at a career-best No.7 in the world – making her the highest-ranked player in the draw this week.
Garcia has never been past the 2nd Round in Charleston but unlike some of the names mentioned above, she has regularly entered this tournament with five previous visits to her name.
It’s worth noting that she didn’t play here last year – and it’s fair to say the 24-year-old arrives this time a better player than on any of her other trips to Charleston.
Last season Garcia made semi finals on the ‘proper’ red clay at Bastad and Strasbourg, as well as a noteworthy quarter final run at the big one, the French Open. She has won WTA clay-court titles too, in Strasbourg (2016) and Bogoto (2014).
Hard courts are the best surface for her hard-hitting game but that can work on the courts here too, with past Charleston winners including muscular hitters such as Serena Williams, Angelique Kerber and Sabine Lisicki.
WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open
BET: Caroline Garcia @ 14/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 14/1 (15.00) Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, Boylesports, 13/1 (14.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here
Play starts in Charleston from 3pm, UK time and Garcia is scheduled to play her first match at 7.30pm+.
I’ll be back on Thursday with more on this week’s tournaments.
Enjoy the tennis...