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Notes from the Tour: The 10,000/1 anniversary...
Thursday 8th October 2026
This time last year, the Rolex Shanghai Masters produced one of the biggest tournament shocks of all time...
As I reported in this column last October, the ‘500/1 cousins’ - winner Valentin Vacherot and runner-up Arthur Rinderknech - played out a historic final at ATP Shanghai 2025.
Vacherot had only scraped into the tournament as a reserve-list entry into the qualifying rounds. Ranked no.204 in the world. Having never reached an ATP final before, let alone won one. The man from Monaco proceeded to win nine matches in a row, taking the title in spectacular fashion - and beating his French cousin in the final. Crazy stuff…
The pre-tournament odds last year saw both Vacherot and Rinderknech go off as 500/1 rank outsiders.
When you add up the nine-match streak from the eventual surprise champ Vacherot, the theoretical match-by-match acca actually rolls up to odds of over 10,000/1…
I love an outsider. An underdog story. A shock. An upset. A surprise result. It’s what my Ones to Watch service has been built on for over a dozen years now…
This week, at the Rolex Shanghai Masters 2026, Vacherot is priced at more like 66/1 - 50/1 (latest odds here). Rinderknech is out injured.
This time, the reigning champion arrives at a career-high ranking of no.14. And with the eyes of the tennis world upon him.
I won’t be backing Vacherot here. But…
I have two other big-odds Ones to Watch selections in this tournament…
In the book for members yesterday before hitting a ball, at odds of 66/1 and 150/1.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone