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Notes from the Tour: Can you make money from Mirra?
Thursday 20th March 2025
There are few things in sport that get the media more excited than a teenager delivering on the big stage…
Think Luke Littler, Wayne Rooney, Mike Tyson, Tiger Woods…
And the sport of tennis has certainly produced its fair share of teenage stars…
With youngsters like Boris Becker (age 17 when he first won Wimbledon), Maria Sharapova (17 - Wimbledon), and Martina Hingis (16 - Australian Open) all becoming household names by winning a Grand Slam event while still very much in their teens…
In tennis, becoming a Grand Slam champion is regarded as a defining moment. It’s the top, tournament-winning prize you can achieve. It’s the bar by which the very best are measured…
In 50 years from now, people will still be talking about how many French Open titles Rafael Nadal won… how many Wimbledon trophies Roger Federer lifted… and how many Majors were chalked up by Novak Djokovic. Far more so than by other measurements, such as total weeks spent at no.1 in the world rankings.
To put them in chronological order. Every year, we have: the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open.
One teenager who is making a big impact on the tour right now is 17-year-old, MIRRA ANDREEVA…
The Russian youngster is just this week up to world no.6, on the back of winning two WTA 1000 titles in a row (1000-grade being the highest tier barring the four annual Grand Slams)...
The next step and the next big question on the lips of a lot of people in the tennis world is, of course: can Mirra win a Major?
Or more directly, as was the case in recent years with Coco Gauff: when she will win a maiden Major title…
Coco first hit the limelight as a 15-year-old at Wimbledon 2019. Winning six matches in a row at SW19 that summer, to come through the qualifying rounds and reach the Last 16 of the main draw…
Gauff then went on to win her first (and to date, only) Grand Slam singles title, at the US Open 2023. In-between, the American made her debut in a Major final at the French Open 2022 (runner-up).
It’s at this point that we need to talk about betting, and bring price into the discussion…
Gauff was 28/1 when she finished runner-up at the French Open 2022… and then just 7/1 when she won the US Open the next summer. When Coco won her first WTA Tour title at Linz in 2019, the teenager went off at 50/1.
Shortening odds also become the main problem when we look at young Mirra Andreeva right now…
As I said to members of my full Ones to Watch service earlier this week, when previewing the current tournament, the WTA 1000 Miami Open:
Andreeva was 28/1 when she won Dubai last month… 11/1 in California last week [Indian Wells]… and now, the teenager is single figures to win a third straight 1000 title, at just 17/2 (9.5). That’s not a price for me. But it’s about the only thing not to like about this very, very impressive young player.
Indeed, in the free Ones to Watch 2024 Report that I sent out back in December 2023 (catch up here), I stated even then - when Mirra was just 16 years old, still ranked outside the Top 50, and yet to win a senior trophy - that short odds were a concern…
Sometimes, I take no pleasure in being proven right…
The hype machine has been whirring of late. Here are Mirra Andreeva’s current best odds for the next four Grand Slams on the calendar. She’ll have celebrated her 18th birthday by the time the first of these come along:
French Open 2025 - 7/1
Wimbledon 2025 - 9/1
US Open 2025 - 7/1
Australian Open 2026 - 8/1
So, while tennis pundits lather themselves up about ‘when will Mirra win a Major’...
The question I have to ask is: can you make money from Mirra?
Obviously, the answer to that one is, yes, you can - if she wins (!)...
If you backed Mirra Andreeva at the odds quoted above for each of the next 4 Majors, betting to level stakes of 1-point Each Way. You would stake a total of 8 pts. Requiring the Russian teenager to win one of those Grand Slams, or at the very least, reach the final in 2 of them - just in order to avoid making a loss
But don’t worry. It’s not all doom and gloom. Here at Ones to Watch, we specialise in finding big-odds youngsters. Stick with me…
Ones to Watch focuses on the tournament Outright Winner markets. Our mantra is:
We back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices.
If you look at the roll-call of recent teenage Grand Slams winners. Ones to Watch members were told about the likes of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Bianca Andreescu, and Carlos Alcaraz. All well in advance of their first Major trophy…
With Swiatek tipped as a 100/1 or 80/1 winner…
And it’s not just teenagers. We’re also always on the lookout for quality players making the big breakthrough at any stage in their career. Be it a change of mindset, or a comeback from injury. Just like our 100/1 and 80/1 winner at the Australian Open this January, Madison Keys (age 29 at the time).
Not a member yet? If you want to get your hands on ALL my big-odds, Each Way, tournament picks. Including the Miami Open this week. Get involved here…
Teenagers Winning Their First Grand Slams - The History Books:
MEN:
Three 17-year-olds in the eighties…
Mats Wilander (French Open 1982)
Boris Becker (Wimbledon 1985)
Michael Chang (French Open 1989)
Then...
Rafael Nadal (age 19, French Open 2005)
Carlos Alcaraz (age 19, US Open 2022)
WOMEN:
Four since summer 2019…
Bianca Andreescu (age 19, US Open 2019)
Iga Swiatek (age 19, French Open 2020)
Emma Raducanu (age 18, US Open 2021)
Coco Gauff (age 19, US Open 2023)
Before that, we had two teenagers making a splash at the Majors in 2004...
Maria Sharapova (age 17, Wimbledon 2004)
Svetlana Kuznetsova (age 19, US Open 2004)
Those coming after...
Serena Williams (age 17, US Open 1999)
And the list goes on, to name just a few: Martina Hingis (age 16, Australian Open 1997)... Monica Seles (age 16, French Open 1990)... Steffi Graf (age 17, French Open 1987).
P.S
Not a member yet? If you want to get your hands on ALL my big-odds, Each Way, tournament picks. Including the Miami Open this week. Get involved here…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone