Latest Ones to Watch Extra Advice

Every week the latest Ones to Watch Extra email is posted here, containing tennis tips and free betting advice...

Notes from the Tour: 100/1 update - US Open Semi Finals...

Thursday 10th September 2026

The US Open semi-finals start tonight…

The women are first up, and it’s a list of big names. With the last four made up of the top four in the world rankings:

Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula

Coco Gauff v Elena Rybakina

As well as the rankings, the head-to-head records suggest we could see a pair of close-fought contests tonight. On Tuesday the Arthur Ashe stadium saw three matches in a row go the distance to a deciding final-set tiebreak. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all if these women’s semis both go to three sets…

• The last 4 meetings between Sabalenka and Pegula have gone to the full 3 sets. With 2 wins apiece by the 2-1 score-line

• Gauff and Rybakina have faced off twice before, and both encounters required all 3 sets. With one win each via the 2-1 score

You can get around 11/8 (2.38) each for these matches to go to three sets (‘Over 2.5 Total Sets’ market).

But I want to draw your attention to some bigger prices today. With my predictions here being as follows:

• Sabalenka is the defending two-time US Open champion, but has not been at her dominant best, and the pressure sometimes impacts her game. Pegula is one of the most respected opponents in the locker room. She knows she can beat the outgoing no.1. Pegula 2-1 in front of a raucous US crowd is my call…

• The New York fans will be even louder for Coco’s match to cap off the night session. But Gauff’s old demons have surfaced again (double faults in double figures in the last round…), and next week’s new world no.1 Rybakina will maul any weak second serves that float over to her side of the net. Coco will fight as hard as ever. But I’d back Elena to keep her head. Rybakina 2-1 is the price pick of the four Set Betting options here, too…

Not a bookie that you may be overly familiar with, but 10Bet are taking a stance by offering the clear industry-best odds for these selections. With the double worth just over 30/1. And around 20/1 in general with the more mainstream firms – Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, Paddy Power…

• Play starts from midnight UK time, live on Sky Sports 

Big moment for Big Foe…

Talking of big odds…

A couple of weeks ago in this column I flagged up the standout prices available for Frances Tiafoe for the men’s US Open…

Ones to Watch members are on the American at odds of 150/1 – 100/1, Each Way, from before a ball was hit…

For the third time in five years, Tiafoe is through to the semi finals here in New York. His dream of winning a first Grand Slam, and doing it in front of his home fans, is still very much alive. The bookies now make Frances just 9/1.

Friday night’s all-American semi between Tiafoe and a Ones to Watch youngster from recent years, Ben Shelton, could be a barnburner…

Shelton is the favourite. The head-to-head is 3-1 to Ben. He won their most recent meeting. But Big Foe beat him in their last contest here at the US Open, in 2024. I’d say both men have improved since then.

If you’re on Tiafoe at 100/1 or the like, then the Each Way part of your bet will mean you have a huge, half-the-odds payout riding on Tiafoe to beat Shelton in this semi-final.

One thing’s for sure. Compared to Shelton’s outright starting price near 10/1 on day one of the tournament – with Tiafoe at 100/1, we have price on our side…

P.S

If you’re not a Ones to Watch member yet. Don’t miss the next big-odds, early-bird advice:

Join the club here >>

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch