Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018
25/1 Vickery on the up…
Monday 2nd April 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
We were right to go after the big prices in Miami but ultimately that tournament ended in disappointment for us.
Whereas March’s other big tournament at Indian Wells saw us good with 80/1 Daria Kasatkina into the Women’s final for a big Each Way payout, our ‘long-shot’ selections fell just short in the Maimi heat…
I had high hopes for our 40/1 pre-tournament Men’s pick Hyeon Chung, but the young South Korean went out in the quarter finals to a red-hot John Isner – with the 6’10” American going on to lift the trophy and win his first ever ATP Masters 1000 title at a massive 80/1.
Our other Men’s tournament pick 18/1 Kevin Anderson had match point in his quarter final, but was agonisingly edged out (for the second tournament running) in a final-set tiebreak, 7-6.
The big prices are where it’s at though. All of the favourites failed to deliver in both the ATP and WTA Miami events, including the like of Roger Federer, Juan-Martin del Potro, Simona Halep, Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber – all of whom were priced at single-figure odds in the respective Outright Winner markets.
Two WTA tournaments this week…
We continue to look for value and follow ‘outsiders’ or potentially underestimated players in the weekly draws, and an improving youngster fits the bill for us for our first bet of April – see below.
The men are on Davis Cup (International) duty later this week, but there are two women’s events on the calendar, WTA Charleston, USA (clay) and WTA Monterrey, Mexico (hard).
The smaller and less high-profile Mexican tournament gets our attention today…
25/1 Vickery on the up…
Sachia Vickery is the improving player that I have my eye on in Monterrey. At 25/1 she could be the one to come through a less-than-intimidating looking draw here.
The 22-year-old American is in the bottom half of the draw and as such avoids 7/2 (4.50) tournament favourite and top seed Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard has been out of sorts for most of this season and has just split with her coach. Vickery made headlines by knocking Muguruza out of Indian Wells last month.
In the bottom half Vickery would avoid Monica Puig or Timea Babos until the semi final stage – those two are 10/1 each at best; I can’t split them and one of them will likely need to punch the other out in order to reach the last four.
Also in Vickery’s section is the talented but injury-prone Magdalena Rybarikova, who is 2nd seed and one of six players in the event priced at 12/1 or shorter.
Another of those is Danielle Collins who we followed for a nice underdog win against Coco Vandeweghe last week. The up-and-coming Collins went on to beat Venus Williams and reach the Miami Open semi finals, as a rank outsider at 50/1+. This week the bookies have reacted by making Collins just 12/1 at best and as short as 7/1.
We’ve after value and an attractive Each Way price, and 25/1 Vickery is my ‘outsider’ pick here…
The young American is seeded in a WTA event for the first time here, and has shown improvement this year, breaking into the Top 100 for the first time (currently #91).
Sachia won four matches in a row at Indian Wells before going out to eventual winner Naomi Osaka. And she won six straight matches in Auckland (also on hard courts) to come through qualifying and reach the semi finals, only losing to World No.2 Caroline Wozniacki.
Play starts in the Monterrey main draw from 7pm tonight, UK time and Vickery is due to play her first match against the out-of-form Irina Falconi (who has struggled with injuries recently) from 8.30pm+.
WTA Monterrey – Abierto GNP Seguros
BET: Sachia Vickery @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 1 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here
I’ll be back on Tuesday with more on this week’s tournaments.
Enjoy the tennis...