Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018
Steve stands out at 18/1...
Friday 13th April 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
It’s been a frustrating week so far. After Benoit Paire failed to take match point in Marrakech on Monday, yesterday we were dealt another blow with Laura Siegemund retiring injured in Lugano.
That Lugano event in Switzerland has been heavily affected by rain so far. So much so that both Siegemund and our match pick Anett Kontaveit had to play their matches at the indoors facilities, rather than outdoors on clay as originally intended.
Kontaveit won the first set v Vera Lapko and led 3-1 in the deciding set – before losing 5 games in a row and with it, the match.
That’s enough negative news. On the upside, things have been going okay so far for us in Houston with 33/1 pick Tennys Sandgren through to the quarter finals (plays 6pm this evening). And Tennys also landed a decent underdog payout for us at odds of 6/5 (2.20) in the last round – beating Nicolas Kicker in straight sets, 6-2, 7-6.
Sandgren is in the bottom half of the Houston draw. In the top half I want to back another American today…
Steve stands out at 18/1…
In Tuesday’s tournament preview we noted that four of the last seven Houston winners have been Americans.
One of those is Steve Johnson, the reigning champ having lifted the trophy here as an 8/1 shot last year.
Earlier this week I namechecked Steve at 20/1 for his title defence, but expressed concern at his tough-looking route through the draw.
Well, so far he looks to be playing himself into form – taking out the first two opponents that I mentioned, fellow Americans, Ernesto Escobedo and Frances Tiafoe.
The surprising thing is that Johnson’s price hasn’t moved much. He can still be backed at 18/1 and 16/1 today….
The Each Way terms have been reduced from 1/2 odds for reaching the final to 1/3 odds, but even with that taken into account – today’s Outright prices look too big.
It’s USA all the way here, with all four quarter finalists in the top half of the draw hailing from the States…
At midnight tonight Steve takes on John Isner. Isner is on his best run of form for some time, winning the Miami Masters and carrying that on with a match win for USA at the Davis Cup and then winning his opener here in Houston.
However those last two opponents weren’t up to much in terms of troubling the big-serving Isner. This will be a much tougher test – Johnson has actually won the last three meetings v Big John.
In the other quarter final, two more Americans battle it out to face the winner of Isner v Johnson, with Jack Sock the favourite to beat Taylor Fritz. Johnson beat Sock in the semi finals here last year.
Johnson is around 11/8 (2.38) to beat Isner tonight but rather than take that match bet, odds of 18/1 and 16/1 Each Way in the Outright Winner market represent the value for me…
If Johnson was priced at around Evens (2.00) to win in the semi finals, the combined price of him winning his quarter final and semi final would come out at less than 4/1.
Odds of 18/1 or 16/1 with 1/3 odds Each Way offer a 6/1 or 5/1 payout for the same outcome, eg. Johnson to reach the final. And remember, if that does happen, you’ll also have the big price for him to actually win the final, too.
With 18/1 and 16/1 still available, Steve stands out today.
ATP Houston – US Men’s Clay Court Championship
BET: Steve Johnson @ 18/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 18/1 (19.00) Betway, 16/1 (17.00) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way
Latest odds here
Today’s play in Houston starts from 6pm UK time.
Enjoy the tennis...