Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018

Two picks for this afternoon...

Friday 27th April 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Two picks for this afternoon – play starts 1pm…
  • Carreno Busta to strike on clay…
  • Bedene to win well…

Two picks for this afternoon…

A short and sweet email this morning, with two players that catch the eye on today’s men’s schedule. Play starts from 1pm.

Both players in question were actually in my tournament notes at the start of the week…

Carreno Busta to strike on clay…

I’ve been keeping an eye on Pablo Carreno Busta in Barcelona; he missed his last event through injury and only returned to full training just two days before this week’s tournament. However the signs are that he’s looking good and he’s racked up two wins here so far.

The Spaniard is a strong clay court player – he reached the French Open quarter finals last year before injury struck. He often goes a bit under the radar or gets underrated though. Carreno Busta is ranked No.11 in the world and I make him the value to beat world No.5 Grigor Dimitrov today.

Dimitrov had to save match points against the 34-year-old Malek Jaziri yesterday, in a three-set battle that took almost three hours to complete. Dimitrov comes up against a more powerful opponent today and a key stat here is that Carreno Busta has won their last two meetings on clay without dropping a set.

ATP Barcelona – Open Banc Sabadell

Match Winner:

BET: Pablo Carreno Busta to beat Grigor Dimitrov @ 6/5
BOOKIES: 6/5 (2.20) William Hill, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, 23/20 (2.15) Boylesports, 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, SunBets, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

Bedene to win well…

In Budapest I had Aljaz Bedene on my Outright Winner shortlist at the start of the week, but decided to leave him out based on price. He went off at 16/1, compared to 66/1 when finishing runner-up here last season, and 50/1 when making the Buenos Aires final on clay in February.

That might end up being one that got away, as the top four seeds are all out and Bedene is now 3/1 for the title.

However, we can back the Slovenian today against a lower-ranked opponent whose time could be up in Budapest…

Lorenzo Sonego, ranked No.159 in the world, has come through qualifying this week so has plenty of court time to his name. And he knocked out a big name in Richard Gasquet in the last round. However, Gasquet wasn’t fully fit and at the races there, and it’s a result that might actually flatter the Italian underdog a bit.

Bedene is proving to be a solid Top 50-level player, and more than decent on clay – this season he’s won 9 out of 12 matches on the surface, only losing to three of the best clay-courters around in Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem and Fabio Fognini.

Bedene is 2/5 (1.40) to win but I like the bigger price for the -3.5 Games Handicap.

ATP Budapest – Gazprom Hungarian Open

Games Handicap:

BET: Aljaz Bedene -3.5 Games Handicap to beat Lorenzo Sonego @ 10/11
BOOKIES: 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Ladbrokes, 5/6 (1.83) in general
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back over the weekend with a look back at the week – and a first look at the prices for next week’s five tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch