Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018

Fun in the sun at 40/1…

Monday 30th April 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Estoril – play starts 1pm…
  • 3/1 is no fun…
  • 40/1 for a clay-court improver…

Notes from last week…

We broke even last week, thanks to a couple of winning Match Winner picks on Laura Siegemund and Pablo Carreno Busta.

After our recent 18/1 v 33/1 final in Houston, there was to be no big-price Outright Winner glory for us this time.

We were looking along the right lines though…

In Barcelona, our 100/1 outsider pick Andrey Rublev withdrew injured before the 1st Round (bet void). But it was a fellow ‘Next Gen’ youngster that made the final, with 19-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas becoming the first Greek player to reach an ATP final since 1974.

Tsitsipas was 80/1, so we were right to go after an outsider in the opposite side of the draw to eventual winner and undisputed Clay Court King, World No.1 Rafael Nadal.

In the women’s event in Stuttgart, we’ve been keeping a close eye on Laura Siegemund’s injury comeback. Backed at a speculative 40/1 last week, the German wasn’t able to defend her 2017 title at her hometown event. She landed a decent match win for us in the 1st Round though, beating Barbora Strycova in straight sets.

Siegemund’s route through the draw was taken by Coco Vandeweghe, who knocked out our pick and went on to reach the final – as a 66/1 outsider. The American was beaten in the final by 16/1 shot, Karolina Pliskova.

That Vandeweghe v Pliskova final featured two players better known for their hard court and grass exploits; big servers favouring the faster services. However, as was on show in Stuttgart, the big-hitting players can be dangerous on the clay too – with the bounce allowing the ball to sit up, giving a player the time to wind up a big swing at a forehand or line-up up a weighty two-handed backhand.

That’s something to keep in mind as we head towards the French Open at the end of May…

As I said at the Australian Open at the start of the year, in the women’s game more and more we’re seeing attacking playing styles rewarded with the big prizes. As opposed to those less powerful and more industrious players from the get-the-ball-back chase-it-down school. More on that in our women’s picks moving forward.

3/1 is no fun…

This week we have no fewer than five tournaments on the calendar, all on clay…

  • ATP Istanbul
  • ATP Estoril
  • ATP Munich
  • WTA Prague
  • WTA Rabat

We’re kicking off the week with a look at the men’s event in Portugal.

Last week I mentioned I’d been keeping an eye on Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard made the ATP Barcelona semi finals as a 40/1 shot there, and I’d been waiting for the prices to go up for Estoril this week…

However, the bookies have priced us out of it. Carreno Busta reached the Estoril semi final in 2015, was runner-up in the final in 2016 – then went the whole hog and won the trophy last year.

The Spaniard was 7/1 when winning here last time; this week Carreno Busta goes off as the 3/1 favourite.

Your Ones to Watch service isn’t about backing ‘must win’ prices or following the favourites. In the long run, they don’t pay. We like to go after the outsiders and big Each Way prices…

40/1 for a clay-court improver…

Pablo Carreno Busto is in the bottom half of the Estoril draw. In the top half, I like the price for another Spaniard with a long name – Roberto Carballes Baena at 40/1

The World No.77 has a career forged almost exclusively on clay; 338 of his 360 match wins have come on the red dirt.

So far in 2018, Carballes Baena has a 14-8 win-loss record on clay, including winning ATP Quito in February at odds of 33/1. That was his first ever ATP final, and at 25 years of age the Spaniard can find his way into a few more at this level on clay…

Quito is an ATP 250 event, the smallest level of tournament on the ATP scale (250, 500, Masters 1000 – then Grand Slam). Estoril is also an ATP 250 event and as such there are no bona fide world beaters in the draw…

World No.11 Carreno Busta is the top seeded player in the bottom half of the draw, World No.8 Kevin Anderson is the No.1 seed and in the top half with Carballes Baena. Anderson is a player I like but it’s worth pointing out only one of his 16 career appearances in finals have come on the clay. The South African is an 11/2 (6.50) second favourite here.

I’m on the lookout for a player with credentials at a big Each Way price, and as a clay-courter who’s having a good year, Carballes Baena is my pick at 40/1.

There’ll be more bets for us in what is a busy tournament schedule this week. We’re kicking off with this one today. Play starts in Estoril from 1pm UK time.

ATP Estoril – Millennium Estoril Open

Outright Winner:

BET: Roberto Carballes Baena @ 40/1 Each Way 
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

I’ll be back on Tuesday with a look at the draws, schedules and prices for this week’s other four tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch