Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018

Monte Carlo or bust? No way…

Thursday 19th April 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Monte Carlo or bust? No way…
  • Looking at the bigger picture…
  • Next week – four to play on clay…

Monte Carlo or bust? No way…

Last week we had a great time of it in Houston, Texas. We got two players into the final for guaranteed profits, at best prices of 18/1 and 33/1 Each Way.

This week things have been less fun for us in Monte Carlo. Our two 28/1 and 50/1 Outright Winner picks both disappointingly crashed out in the 1st Round.

And yesterday our Over 22.5 Games pick missed out by just one game, with Fernando Verdasco blowing his chances in the 2nd set v Marin Cilic.

Verdasco twice went a break up, but lost his serve in the very next game both times. Including when serving for the set at 5-3. If he’d have held serve in that game, Over 22.5 Games would have been assured, and Verdasco would have gone into the final set with a decent shout of landing our 6/1 bet on the 2-1 Set Betting score.

But that’s all ifs, buts and maybes. I said Verdasco was unpredictable; this is nothing new. I felt the price we took yesterday allowed for that element of risk.

Looking at the bigger picture…

I got an interesting email from Ones to Watch member Frank H recently. Frank wrote in after 80/1 Daria Kasatkina got to the WTA Indian Wells final for us last month:

“I level stake all your outright picks, never hedging anything, paying off this time to the tune of £1,300”

This prompted me to take a closer look at our 2018 spreadsheet…

Backing every tournament Outright Winner selection that I’ve advised so far this season, to 1 point Each Way level stakes, would have given 42.5 pts profit, for a 59% ROI.

We’ve backed a total of 36 players, Each Way, across 19 different tournaments. Five of those 36 players have reached the final; four have finished runner-up for an Each Way payout and one has won.

Last season I got nine players into finals, from a total of 47 tournaments covered. That’s a 19% strike rate. So far this season – with increased event coverage as part of your new weekly 2018 Ones to Watch service – we’re ahead of that figure, with five finalists from 19 tournaments (26%).

At the prices we go for in the weekly Outright Winner markets, we will back more losers than winners. But that’s okay. It’s to be expected. The payouts when our players win are more than worth the wait.

Next week – four to play on clay…

The figures above say Frank is on to something.

Perhaps I’m being too conservative sometimes with my ‘smaller stakes’ recommendations on players like 80/1 Kasatkina.

Perhaps I overthink things sometimes (I certainly put a lot of thought in).

But the key point is this: we’re backing plenty of big-price outsiders, and we’re getting enough of them into finals to produce a healthy profit over the course of the season.

And guess what. We’ve still got three of the four Grand Slams to come, and the busiest & best part of the season lies ahead of us in the spring & summer months to come…

Monte Carlo hasn’t gone our way this week. But Houston did last week. Ups and downs are part of the game.

Next week we have no fewer than four clay-court tournaments to look forward to…

23rd – 29th April:

  • ATP Budapest
  • ATP Barcelona
  • WTA Stuttgart
  • WTA Istanbul

The French Open build-up is picking up pace. The road to Roland Garros is one that we look forward to travelling…

I’ll be back on Sunday night with our first look at the Each Way opportunities for next week.

Enjoy the sunshine. And as always – enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch