Tennis Betting Advice - April 2018

Verdasco value at 6/1...

Wednesday 18th April 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Back down to earth...
  • Verdasco value at 6/1...

Back down to earth...

You can’t win them all.

After the highs of last week, where we had a win-win final with an 18/1 v a 33/1 shot, we landed with a bump yesterday.

Both of our Outright Winner outsider picks for Monte Carlo fell at the very first hurdle – 28/1 Lucas Pouille and 50/1 Kyle Edmund. Both lost 2-1 in a deciding set in the 1st Round.

To rub salt in the wound, the route Edmund would have taken through the Monte Carlo draw was made all the easier last night by the withdrawal of one of the seeds, Pablo Carreno Busta – who was due to play Edmund’s victor Andreas Seppi in the 2nd Round today. In Carreno Busta’s place, a Lucky Loser from qualifying, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez gets to take on Seppi today.

We move on...

Verdasco value at 6/1...

Fernando Verdasco v Marin Cilic

ATP Monte Carlo – Rolex Masters
Match scheduled: 2.30pm+

Rankings: Verdasco #37, Cilic #3
Head-to-Head: Cilic 7-5

Fernando Verdasco is a tricky first-match opponent for any player. The Spaniard is one of those ‘on his day’ players who can be brilliant and beat anyone when he’s on fire. He’s also in the ‘hit or miss’ category, with a reputation for being somewhat unpredictable.

However a day like today looks a good one to back Verdasco. We have to make sure we get a good price, and there’s one option I like in particular. The Spaniard is 2/1 (3.00) to win the match, but you can get as big as 6/1 (7.00) for him to win 2-1 in the Set Betting market.

That was the score when Verdasco won the last meeting v Cilic on clay (Madrid, 2015), with a hard-fought 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 victory.

More recently, Verdasco came from behind and saved match points in his 1st Round match this week (Cilic had a 1st Round Bye). And with that 2-1 win included, 6 of Verdasco’s last 8 matches have gone to a final set. On the winning front, each of his last 5 wins on tour have been by a 2-1 score, and 7 of his last 10 wins overall.

Cilic is World No.3 and a class act but this is his first match of the week here on clay, and with the courts reported to be playing a bit slow, that will suit the game of the Spaniard more than the big-hitting Croatian.

Verdasco is a former finalist in Monte Carlo and has beaten the likes of Novak Djokovic here before. Cilic is the rightful favourite today, but Verdasco is a real ‘potential banana skin’ opponent...

As I say, I want the best price on the underdog here, and for me that’s in the Set Betting market with odds of 5/1 and 6/1 available for the 2-1 win.

Also, with Verdasco’s form for long matches, added to the fact that 7 of the last 9 meetings between these players have gone Over 22.5 Games, backing that Total Games option at Evens (2.00) looks a good tactic too.

Over 22.5 Games could pay out even if the favourite Cilic wins in straight sets (7-6, 6-4 for example). And if it does go to three sets then there’s the possibility of the double win with the 2-1 Set Betting score for Verdasco.

Fernando Verdasco v Marin Cilic:

BET: Set Betting – Verdasco to win 2-1 @ 6/1
BOOKIES: 6/1 (7.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 5/1 (6.00) Bet365, Skybet, Betway, Marathonbet
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

BET: Total Games – Over 22.5 Games @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Betway, Marathonbet, NetBet, 10Bet, 19/20 (1.95) BetVictor, 10/11 (1.91) Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow with the latest from Monte Carlo.

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch