Tennis Betting Advice - April 2019

Monte Carlo Masters – 28/1 and 80/1 picks…

Sunday 14th April 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Monte Carlo Masters…
  • Invest in youth…
  • This week’s picks – at 28/1 and 80/1…

Can’t see the Woods for the trees…

I spent a large part of Sunday watching Tiger Woods win The Masters – so I’m a bit later than usual writing my notes up this evening…

It’s all good though. Monday’s Monte Carlo matches don’t start until 10am UK time, so we have until then to get in on the Outright Winner market. Also, the two men we’re backing don’t play until Tuesday at the earliest.

Watching Woods win the golf reminded me of Roger Federer’s return to Grand Slam glory at the Australian Open 2017.

After a barren couple of years in the Majors, Federer did what all great champions do – producing a winning comeback when many had started to write him off.

Roger was a top price 22/1 at Melbourne 2017. I remember kicking myself a bit at the time. Tiger was 20/1 for this latest Augusta win. These things can look obvious in hindsight…

We might be saying a similar thing next Sunday evening. By then, Rafael Nadal may well have won the ATP Monte Carlo title for the fourth successive season – and the 12th time in 15 years…

However, unlike those historic Woods and Federer wins, Nadal won’t be going off at any kind of kick-yourself-if-you-miss-it price. Rafa is the Even Money (2.00) favourite for Monte Carlo.

Rafa is in the bottom half of the draw for this, the first clay-court Masters 1000 event of the season. World No.1 Novak Djokovic is in the top half and he’s 3/1, followed by clay court king-in-waiting (or should that be prince), Dominic Thiem at 7/1. Federer isn’t playing.

This week’s picks – two young ones…

Nadal is obviously the main man here. But no-one is unbeatable. And recent Monte Carlo history says a long-odds finalist and a big Each Way payout is by no means out of the question…

Winning the title here the last three years running, Nadal has faced a big-price outsider in the final each time:

2018 runner-up – Kei Nishikori 66/1
2017 runner-up – Albert Ramos-Vinolas 200/1
2016 runner-up – Gael Monfils 100/1

With that encouraging trend – along with the fact Monte Carlo comes early in the clay season and as such might find some big-name players not yet up to speed on the ‘red dirt’ – we’re going to cover a couple of very talented young players at attractive prices…

In the top half, Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 28/1 is my Ones to Watch pick. The 20-year-old from Greece is up to a career-to-date high of No.8 in the world.

I’ve tipped him at both Masters events so far this year, Indian Wells @ 40/1 and Miami @ 28/1. As with Daria Kasatkina last season, I’m keen to stick with Tsitsipas. I reckon he’s going to land a big one soon.

Stefanos made a first clay final in Barcelona last April (at 80/1), a week after going out in the 2nd Round here in Monte Carlo. He also made a first Masters final in 2018, at Toronto – again at 80/1. And both times he lost to Nadal in the final. He can’t meet Rafa until the final here, either.

In the bottom half, we have a genuine young ‘one to watch’ and that’s 18-year-old Felix Auger-Aliassime at 80/1

After a breakthrough run to the Miami Masters semi final last time out, the Canadian teenager is up to a new career high of No.33 in the world – and he’s the youngest player in the men’s Top 100. The early signs are that he’ll go much, much higher in the years to come – and maybe even sooner.

In the Juniors, Auger-Aliassime won the Boys’ US Open 2016 and also came within a whisker of winning the French Open (runner-up 2016).

In 2017, Felix won the ATP Lyon Challenger event as a 16-year-old, making him one of the youngest ever players to win a title on the lower-tier Challenger tour. Previous teenage Challenger winners include Nadal and Juan-Martin del Potro – both of whom went on to win Grand Slam trophies before they had turned 21…

In February, Felix reached his first Senior-level ATP final, finishing a 50/1 runner-up in Rio de Janeiro on clay.

During Miami in March, Greg Rusedski said the Tennis Canada team had told him they’d never had a young player that was as good an athlete as Auger-Aliassime.

As well as exceptional speed and movement, Felix also has an array of shots at his disposal and a level of point construction and calmness that marks him out as having a smart head on his young shoulders…

In the bottom half of the Monte Carlo draw, he may well have to beat Nadal if he’s to progress deep in this week’s tournament. But at odds of 80/1 we know we’re in proper outsider territory. And if this proves to be the big breakthrough week for Felix, then we don’t want to miss it.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

Outright Winner:

ATP Monte Carlo – Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters

BET: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 28/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 28/1 (28.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 25/1 (26.00) Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet

BET: Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 80/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 80/1 (81.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts 10am.

I’ll be back in the week with more from Monte Carlo – including a look at the match prices and our next Rollover bet.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch