Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021
A big night in Miami...
Thursday 1st April 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
It was all happening in Miami last night. Two big results opened up the semi final draws, with the tournament favourites dumped out of both the men’s and women’s events.
Daniil Medvedev was beaten 2-0 in the quarter finals by Roberto Bautista-Agut. And Naomi Osaka was also wiped out in straight sets, by Maria Sakkari.
Once again, we’re seeing plenty of evidence to back up our Ones to Watch approach: we don’t back the favourites at short prices; we look for appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…
We’ve got two such players through to the Miami Open semi finals. Both were involved in close, high-quality matches yesterday…
Sinner and Andreescu reach the semis…
Jannik Sinner beat the talented but unpredictable Alexander Bublik, coming from a break down in both sets to win 7-6, 6-4. Meeting at the net for the end-of-match ‘handshake,’ Bublik jokingly praised the 19-year-old’s calm and assured performance: “You’re not human!”
Our 33/1 pick at the start of the tournament, Sinner is now 3/1 for the title. There are no former ATP Masters 1000 winners left in the draw – so it’s going to be a breakthrough week for someone. Sinner will face Bautista-Agut.
In the women’s, the long and dramatic matches continue…
Two of the four semi-finalists have saved match points to get here. World no.1 Ashleigh Barty came back from the brink in her opening match. And Sakkari saved six match points in the 4th round, against our 25/1 pick Jessica Pegula.
We’ve got one woman left standing in Miami, and she’s a good one. Bianca Andreescu is one of the absolute best fighters on the tour. She’s what the pundits call a ‘mentality monster.’ I was up ‘til 3am last night watching the Canadian’s latest epic – and it was worth every second.
Andreescu finished strong – for the third match in a row – to beat the much-improved Sara Sorribes Tormo, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, in two hours & 38 minutes. That comes after two-hour+, three-set triumphs over two other very tough opponents, Amanda Anisimova and Garbine Muguruza.
From odds of 25/1, 22/1 and 20/1 when we backed her, the 20-year-old is now 3/1 for the trophy. Bianca has got the grit, the game, and the big-match mentality to do it. The question is whether she can physically hang in there. My feeling is yes, she can – but it won’t be easy…
Andreescu takes on Sakkari in the semi finals.
Sakkari is supremely fit, and has the big shots to take down anyone – as Osaka found out last night. The test for the 25-year-old Greek player is if she can hold it all together, coming off the back of her biggest ever win yesterday, and now looking to reach her biggest ever final.
One thing’s for sure – both women will fight until the end.
Big One in with a chance…
With those 33/1 and 25/1 shots in the Miami semis, our really Big One in the bottom half of the men’s draw feels even more like a ‘free roll’ now…
Sebastian Korda takes on Andrey Rublev, with the Ones to Watch youngster firmly in place as the underdog. Seb is 7/2 (4.5) to win the match – Rublev is 5/2 (3.5) at best to win the whole tournament.
As we saw reaffirmed yesterday, no-one is ever unbeatable. Our man Korda has a chance. He’s been playing great. And we’re on him at a truly massive price.
From odds of 250/1 and 200/1, the young American is still the tournament underdog, but now trading at just 33/1.
We’ve definitely got youth on our side in Miami, and that’s just how I like it. Andreescu and Korda are both just 20 years old, and Sinner is only 19.
Four tournaments next week…
After Miami comes to a head this weekend, we’ve got four more tournaments to look forward to next week, with the tours moving on to the clay. I’ve updated the early-April calendar here.
We’ll be taking a first look at the Outright Winner prices for those events on Sunday night.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson