Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

Three-set fun at 197/1...

Tuesday 6th April 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Sara Errani v Sara Sorribes Tormo…
  • Anastasija Sevastova v Anastasia Potapova…
  • Cori Gauff v Tsvetana Pironkova…

The ‘2-1’ Set Betting route has served us well in the women’s game of late. There are three WTA matches today that have a real look of three-setters about them. Here are the players and prices in question…

Sara Errani v Sara Sorribes Tormo

WTA Bogota – Copa Claro Colsanitas

Match scheduled 4pm+

If form only went back one month, then it’d be hard to say anything other than Sorribes Tormo to win here. In March, the Spaniard won a first WTA title, and also reached a semi final and quarter final. During that time, the 33-year-old Errani played in the same three tournaments, and lost in the 1st round at each.

However, those were all on hard courts. Today’s meeting in Colombia takes place on clay, which is the most winningest surface for both women. Errani’s star may have faded a bit these days, but the Italian is a former French Open finalist, has made the quarter finals on her last four visits here in Bogota, and she leads the head-to-head v Sorribes Tormo, 3-0.

Undoubtedly, the 24-year-old Sorribes Tormo has improved this season. But their last meeting was only last year in Acapulco, and a 3-0 head-to-head is significant enough to lodge itself in the losing player’s mind.

Errani is 7/2 (4.5) for an underdog win today, but as ever, I want to get the very best price. It’s hard to see the outsider doing this in straight sets…

  • 8 of Errani’s 11 matches this season have gone to 3 Sets
  • At the Miami Open last time out, all 5 of Sorribes Tormo’s matches went the distance to 3 Sets

In the Set Betting market, Errani to win 2-1 is as big as 10/1 and 9/1.

Anastasija Sevastova v Anastasia Potapova

WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open

Match scheduled 3.30pm+

This has the look of another three-set battle. Both women have impressive win-loss percentages on clay. The 30-year-old Sevastova has a career match win-loss record of 236-98 (71%). The 20-year-old Potapova is 35-18 (66%).

Potapova is still young and does look to be getting better, but she still makes a lot of errors, and ultimately that could cost her today.

Their two previous meetings both took place at clay-court events, with the head-to-head level at 1-1, and Sevastova having won three of the five total sets that they’ve played.

The Latvian is the 8/11 (1.73) favourite to win today. Sevastova has featured in our 2-1 Set Betting picks a couple of times already this season, and I prefer that option again here, at 3/1+. Four of her last seven matches have gone to three sets.

Cori Gauff v Tsvetana Pironkova

WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open

Match scheduled 1.30am+

In the night match, strap in for another late one. These two players have also featured a few times in our notes in recent months. As we noted in Miami, eight of Coco Gauff’s last 10 matches have gone to a deciding set. We successfully opposed the 17-year-old at odds of 5/1 in Florida (v Sevastova).

To her credit though, the American teenager has won six of those eight three-set tussles. And if fitness comes into play tonight, Coco is likely to have the edge over Pironkova, who lost a match-point heart-breaker against another of our 2-1 picks in Miami, Aryna Sabalenka.

Gauff is the 8/11 (1.73) favourite to win. I’m much more drawn to the 2-1 score at 3/1+ (4.0+).

197/1 for the treble…

There are plenty of ways to tackle today’s matches. As well as the Match Winner markets, there are Total Sets (eg. 3 Sets) options available with several bookies, too.

The biggest rewards are to be found in the Set Betting prices though, and that’s where I’m going. A speculative treble on all three 2-1 victories comes out at 197/1. It’s not impossible.

Ones to Watch

Three matches as listed above.

Set Betting:

  • Errani to win 2-1 is 10/1 (11.0) with William Hill, 9/1 (10.0) Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, 17/2 (9.5) Bet365, Sportingbet, Bwin 
  • Sevastova to win 2-1 is 7/2 (4.5) with Skybet, 17/5 (4.4) Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Sportingbet, Bwin
  • Gauff to win 2-1 is 7/2 (4.5) with Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin, Unibet, 10/3 (4.33) and 16/5 (4.2) in general
  • Treble – all three to win 2-1 is 197/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, 187/1 Sportingbet, Bwin, 179/1 William Hill, 177/1 Bet365

Play starts from 4pm, and all the matches are live on Amazon Prime Video.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch