Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

'I'm old enough to be your father...'

Thursday 8th April 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Charleston…
  • Stephens v Tomljanovic…
  • ATP teenagers on show…

We had all the ups and downs of tennis yesterday…

Our 40/1 tournament pick Amanda Anisimova managed to lose from 6-1, 4-1 up – and had a point for 5-1, too. The teenager looked to have picked up an injury.

Madison Keys hit more winners than Sloane Stephens, but couldn’t take any of her break points – and lost 6-4, 6-4.

And our other Each Way selection, Elise Mertens, also contrived to lose in straight sets – despite having two set points in the opener, and leading by a break in the second.

Seven of the day’s 13 matches in Charleston went the distance to three sets. And our women’s 2-1 Set Betting tactic proved a good one for us yesterday. Lauren Davis pulled off the underdog win against Sofia Kenin, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 – to land odds of 7/1.

  • Kenin has now played 4 matches since the Australian Open. All 4 have gone to 3 Sets – and she’s lost 3 of them

Sloane’s sliding into gear…

We’ve been focusing on the WTA Charleston tournament, and the ‘green clay’ seems to be making it hard for players to hold serve. For instance, Shelby Rogers’ come-from-behind victory against Anisimova featured a whopping 33 break points, and 18 breaks of serve. The American teenager was undone by losing a remarkable seven service games in a row. You can’t do that and expect to win matches at this level.

Davis’ win over Kenin saw 15 breaks of serve.

That makes Sloane Stephens’ form so far this week even more impressive. Sloane has only lost her serve once in four sets of tennis. And she’s saved eight out of nine break points.

As we’ve commented many times before, you never know which Stephens is going to turn up at an event. From what I’m seeing here in Charleston, the 2016 champion has dialled back into the game-face zone. She looks in excellent physical condition, too.

If Sloane is having one of her good weeks, then we should get behind her. This evening’s opponent Ajla Tomljanovic is a dangerous ball-striker – but so is Stephens. And the American has all the tools to soak up the Australian’s power, and send it back over the net with interest. Potential quarter-final opponent Veronika Kudermetova would require a similar game-plan.

When Stephens is on song, she glides around the court, and sprays winners with easy power. The pre-tournament 80/1 & 66/1 is of course now long gone. But on this occasion, I think there’s still juice in today’s odds of 20/1. That’s the same (best price) that we got for Keys this week. And when Sloane won this event in 2016, she was 14/1.

  • I’m also taking Stephens to beat Tomljanovic in the Match Winner betting today. The head-to-head is a resounding 5-0 to the American

‘I’m old enough to be your father…’

Elsewhere in today’s other three clay-court tournaments…

ATP Marbella sees the Spanish generations collide. With 39-year-old Feliciano Lopez taking on the 17-year-old Ones to Watch in 2021 name, Carlos Alcaraz. The bookies make the teenager a 4/11 (1.36) favourite.

Just the 22-year age gap in that one! Lopez was playing on the tour before Alcaraz was even born. In fact, on the day that Alcaraz was born, 5th May 2003, Lopez was competing in an ATP tournament in Rome.

At ATP Cagliari in Italy, the home hopes include another OTW 2021 teenager, 19-year-old Lorenzo Musetti. He’s also priced as a short favourite today, taking on the 30-year-old Dan Evans. Expect to see some sumptuous one-handed backhands in that one.

Ones to Watch

WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open

Match Winner:

  • Sloane Stephens to beat Ajla Tomljanovic is 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Sloane Stephens is 20/1 with Boylesports, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts in Charleston from 4pm, UK time. You can watch the tournament on Amazon Prime Video, and on bookie websites including Bet365.

Breaking news this morning that the French Open has been moved back a week, to 30th May. As it stands, with Wimbledon scheduled to go ahead, too, we’ve got a nice busy summer to look forward to.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch