Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

Stuttgart selections at 25/1 and 100/1...

Monday 19th April 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Stuttgart…
  • Ones to Watch at 25/1 and 100/1…
  • Play starts 4pm…

We said that last week’s WTA 250 event in Charleston was ripe for a first-time winner…

I didn’t quite manage to pinpoint the right player – 40/1 Astra Sharma took out our teenage 33/1 pick Linda Fruhvirtova en route to lifting a maiden WTA title. For beaten finalist and 4/1 pre-tournament favourite Ons Jabeur, the wait goes on.

This week the big women’s event is the WTA 500 clay-court tournament in Stuttgart, Germany – AKA the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix

There are plenty of big names and short prices here. Including two French Open champions, world no.1 Ashleigh Barty at 7/2 (4.5), and world no.3 Simona Halep at 4/1 (5.0).

Barty is playing here for the first time. Halep is a former two-time Stuttgart semi-finalist, but has yet to reach the final in five visits.

This tournament is a rare beast in that it’s an ‘indoors’ clay court event – something you don’t see much of. As such, with wind and weather not the usual issue to contend with, conditions have tended to lend themselves to players known for their raw hitting power. With previous Stuttgart trophy winners including Petra Kvitova, Karolina Pliskova, Angelique Kerber (twice), and Maria Sharapova (three times).

A potential Lay…

That ‘hard hitter’ note may alert some to back Aryna Sabalenka this week. The 22-year-old Belarusian thumps the ball as hard as any other woman in the game – if not harder. However, single-figure Outright Winner quotes of 9/1 and 8/1 don’t do much for me here. In fact, at those prices, Sabalenka might be worth a ‘Lay’ for any of you that like to bet that way on the exchanges…

I’ve commented before on Aryna’s movement. It’s an area of her game when she can look a little cumbersome at times. Clay would seem to amplify that. Sabalenka’s career match win-loss record on the dirt is an unremarkable 31-31, and she’s never won a tournament on this playing surface. In comparison, she has 10 WTA titles to her name on hard courts & indoor hard courts combined.

As I write, there are hardly any coins on the Betfair Exchange for the Stuttgart Outright Winner market. But I had a request for Lay betting advice recently, so I thought I’d share my thoughts with you today. (For anyone new to exchange betting, to Lay an Outright Winner is to bet on a player not winning the tournament.)

Ones to Watch in Stuttgart at 25/1 and 100/1…

In the standard Outright Winner market for WTA Stuttgart, I like two women at Each Way prices. One in each side of the draw. And both have done well at this tournament before…

Laura Siegemund @ 100/1 with Boylesports. The German has appeared in our clay-court picks in the past. Siegemund is something of a specialist. Injuries have always been her main downfall. But when fit, Laura is a real threat on the dirt. She won this tournament in 2017 (at 33/1), and also reached the final in 2016, as a 100/1 outsider. The 33-year-old is available at outsider odds of 100/1 and 80/1 this week.

Anett Kontaveit @ 25/1 with Unibet. Kontaveit has been a Ones to Watch regular over the years, and she’s one of the players I always want to do well – she always comes across very well in interviews. The 25-year-old Estonian possesses the game to do well on these courts. Anett’s last three visits to Stuttgart have seen progress each time: quarter final, semi final, final.

Last year, Kontaveit made the final on clay at WTA Palermo, as a 12/1 pick for us in the first tournament back after lockdown. Other notable clay results include that Stuttgart final in 2019, and a Rome semi final in 2018. Odds of 25/1, 22/1 and 20/1 appeal this week.

Ones to Watch

WTA Stuttgart – Porsche Tennis Grand Prix

Outright Winner – Each Way

  • Laura Siegemund is 100/1 with Boylesports, 80/1 Bet365, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, Betfred, 888 Sport
  • Anett Kontaveit is 25/1 with Unibet, 22/1 Bet365, 888 Sport, 20/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts from 4pm. Bookmakers take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch