Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

WTA Madrid - expecting a long one today...

Thursday 29th April 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • WTA Madrid…
  • Martic v Pera…
  • Sticking with the 2-1 tactic…

The women’s Madrid tournament gets underway today. Yesterday we got two big prices in the Outright Winner book, with 200/1 Paula Badosa and 40/1 Maria Sakkari put forward as Ones to Watch picks. This morning I’ve got my first match selection for you…

Petra Martic v Bernarda Pera

Match scheduled 2.30pm+

Rankings: Martic #24 – Pera #70

Head-to-head: Martic 2-1

Match Winner odds: Martic 10/11 (1.91) – Pera 10/11 (1.91)

As those match odds show, the bookies are expecting a close one here. The betting is 50-50, at 10/11 the pair.

It’s an intriguing set-up, with the higher-ranked Martic out of form, on a four-match losing streak. And the younger player Pera having just come through the Madrid qualifiers with a couple of battling performances…

The most recent of those came early yesterday evening, with Pera eventually prevailing in just under three hours against Polona Hercog. The American ended up having to come from a break down in the final set, securing her place in the main draw with a long & winding 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 victory.

I followed that Pera-Hercog match in-play, and I’ve got to say – it was a trader’s dream. Pera was 6-4, 5-2 up at one stage, and served for the match at 5-3. In total, the 26-year-old left-hander had five match points in the second set, but couldn’t take any of them. Bernarda conspired to lose three service games in a row, as her 30-year-old opponent reeled off six straight games to take the set, and then build an early lead in the third.

During all that, the match prices swung back and forth, with Pera at 1/20 (1.05) on the Betfair Exchange when serving for the match – and Hercog out to 40/1 (41.0) at one point. Those odds then almost fully flipped in the third set, when the Slovenian had break points to go 3-0 up.

Sticking with the 2-1 tactic…

The American is on my radar for long matches and struggling to hold onto leads. We benefitted from this trait in Miami last month, with Pera failing on two match points, and our 3/1+ Set Betting pick Sara Sorribes Tormo fighting back from 1-5 down in the third set to somehow win the match, for a 2-1 Set Betting winner.

Over the past year or so, that 2-1 tactic has done well for us on the women’s tour. Bernard Pera is a particularly noteworthy candidate for three-set matches this season:

  • 10 of Pera’s 13 matches in 2021 have gone the distance to 3 Sets
  • That includes each of her last 5 matches being settling by the 2-1 Set Betting score, with 3 close defeats, followed by 2 wins here in the Madrid qualifiers

Pera’s other 2-1 win in qualifying came against a respected if not well-known clay-court opponent, the 23-year-old Spaniard, Aliana Bolsova.

With today’s opponent – the 30-year-old Croatian, Petra Martic – short on form and confidence, this match looks another potential three-setter. In the Total Sets market, that option is 11/10 (2.1).

I’m expecting Pera to put up in another gritty (and probably nerve-wracking) performance today… and drawn as ever to the bigger prices, odds of 7/2+ (4.5+) appeal for the 2-1 win.

Ones to Watch

WTA Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open

  • Set Betting – Bernarda Pera to win 2-1 v Petra Martic is 19/5 (4.8) with Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, 15/4 (4.75) Bet365, Sportingbet, Bwin, 18/5 (4.6) William Hill, 7/2 (4.5) BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports

The match is scheduled for 2.30pm, but it might be an hour or so later than that, seeing as it’s the fourth & final match on Court 4 today. The Mutua Madrid Open is being shown live on Amazon Prime Video.

I’ll be back over the weekend with a first look at the Outright Winner prices for the ATP Madrid event – the men’s 1st round matches start from Sunday morning.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch