Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

Sunday Night Club – Ones to Watch at 33/1…

Sunday 25th April 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • ATP Munich…
  • ATP Estoril…
  • Outright Winner picks…

Sunday Night Club – Ones to Watch at 33/1…

Last time we backed Casper Ruud, it was at 100/1 at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Monte Carlo. He reached the semi finals that week. Having sat out the next tournament due to injury, Ruud returns to the tour this week at the ATP 250 tournament in Munich. The problem is, this time he’s just 5/1. I’m looking elsewhere, for a bigger price with legs in his side of the draw…

One man that could come through here is former Munich runner-up, Guido Pella…

The 30-year-old left-hander is vastly experienced on clay, with 391 professional match wins to his name. The Argentinean also boasts a 2-0 head-to-head record v Ruud, which could prove significant. In the early Outright Winner prices available this evening, Pella stands out as an outsider pick at 33/1, 28/1, or 25/1.

The other clay-court tournament that gets underway from Monday morning is another ATP 250 event, in Estoril. Denis Shapovalov is a 4/1 favourite. As with Ruud, last time we backed Denis, it was at a much more palatable price (28/1). Likewise, the teenager Carlos Alcaraz, who was a top-price 80/1 pick for us last week – but goes off at just 14/1 here.

For bigger odds, an unpredictable but talented player with an attractive price next to his name is Corentin Moutet…

The 22-year-old Frenchman knocked out our pick Dan Evans in Barcelona last week. Since the start of 2020, Moutet has reached a first ATP final, and followed that up with a semi-final run at the start of this season.

Corentin has got 131 career match wins to his name on clay, compared to just 56 for fellow 22-year-old left-hander, Shapovalov. With the Canadian seeded with a Bye, he could meet Moutet in the 2nd round. Shapo’ has a negative overall career head-to-head against left-handers, while Moutet’s figure is in the positive. I want to be on the side of the bigger-priced player, and that’s the Frenchman, with 33/1, 28/1, and 25/1 available this evening.

Ones to Watch

Outright Winner picks – Each Way

ATP Munich – BMW Open

  • Guido Pella is 33/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, 28/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, 25/1 Betfred

ATP Estoril – Millennium Estoril Open

  • Corentin Moutet is 33/1 with William Hill, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 28/1 Betfred, 25/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Other bookies will price up later tonight or first thing in the morning – including Betway, Boylesports, BetVictor.

  • Play starts from 10am Monday. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches

I’ll be back throughout the week with more. And we have a big tournament coming up in Madrid, too.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch