Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

Looking for Monte Carlo magic at 100/1…

Sunday 11th April 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Sunday Night Club…
  • ATP Monte Carlo Masters…
  • Ones to Watch at 28/1, 66/1, and 100/1…

Good evening. In this week’s Sunday Night Club we’re taking a look at the Monte Carlo Masters. Aiming to get on a couple of appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices, before Monday’s matches get underway at 10am…

Now, if it’s only favourites that you’re interested in backing then, A) you’re in the wrong place with my Ones to Watch service. And B), here’s Rafael Nadal’s record in Monte Carlo:

(2020 – tournament not played)
2019 – semi final
2018 – 2016 – won, won, won
2015 – semi final
2014 – quarter final
2013 – runner-up
2012 – 2005 – won, won, won, won, won, won, won, won

That’s a pretty scary 15-year record from Rafa. The clay-court king is odds-on to regain the Monte Carlo crown this week, at 5/6 (1.83) across the board.

World no.1 Novak Djokovic is next in line, at 13/5 (3.6). Novak has won this title twice, and reached the final four times in his last 10 visits.

Nadal is in the bottom half of the draw, with Djokovic in the top half. If it’s all plain sailing for the top two, then that will be the final. But…

On the flipside of that big-name dominance, it is very much worth noting these recent Monte Carlo finalists that all delivered at massive Each Way prices…

2019 – Fabio Fognini won 100/1, Dusan Lajovic runner-up 300/1
2018 – Kei Nishikori runner-up 66/1
2017 – Albert Ramos-Vinolas runner-up 200/1
2016 – Gael Monfils runner-up 100/1

That handful of whoppers tells us that it is absolutely not out of the question to see a big underdog do well here.

Here are the Ones to Watch names that I like the look of, going into Monte Carlo on the clay this week…

Ones to Watch in Monte Carlo…

Jannik Sinner @ 66/1 – the Italian teenager reached the Miami Open final for us at 33/1 last time out. This 19-year-old is the real deal, and he made the French Open quarter finals on the clay last season. He’ll have to overcome Djokovic early on, but as I said in Miami, it’s all new and all upside for Sinner right now – and he can beat anyone.

Casper Ruud @ 100/1 – he’s in the bottom half of the draw with Nadal, but the Norwegian youngster can’t meet Rafa until the semi-final stage – so that certainly gives some scope for Casper making a deep run. Ruud came close for us at a clay-court ATP Masters 1000 event like this for us season, reaching the Rome semis at 150/1.

And a more established player that I also want to take in this section of the draw, who is seeded to face Ruud in the 2nd round, should the 100/1 shot get there…

Diego Schwartzman @ 28/1 – the Argentinean is a genuine ‘best of the rest’ player, and that makes him worth following in case any of the big guns falter here. Diego’s recent record at clay-court tournaments simply cannot be ignored: won, semi final (French Open), runner-up (Rome Masters), quarter final, semi final, won. That’s half-a-dozen very strong results in a row on clay, since the start of 2020. He beat Nadal in Rome last year.

Ones to Watch

ATP Monte Carlo – Rolex Masters

Outright Winner – Each Way

  • Jannik Sinner is 66/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred
  • Casper Ruud is 100/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betfred, Betway
  • Diego Schwartzman is 28/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts from 10am. Bookmakers take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.

I’ll be back throughout the week with more from Monte Carlo, as well as coverage of the second women’s tournament taking place in Charleston, USA.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch