Tennis Betting Advice - April 2021

One to Watch in Charleston at 40/1…

Monday 5th April 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Four tournaments this week…
  • WTA Charleston – play starts 3pm…
  • Ones to Watch at 18/1, 20/1, and 40/1…

You never know when an upcoming player is going to make the big leap forward…

At this year’s Australian Open, we backed Hubert Hurkacz at 300/1. He crashed out in the 1st round. The 24-year-old Pole then also failed to win back-to-back matches in any of his next three events.

Then, last week in Miami, Hubert stacked up a six-match streak and won a first ATP Masters 1000 title. He was 100/1. Along the way, he beat the likes of Milos Roanic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and man of the moment, Andrey Rublev.

In the final, Hurkacz beat our 33/1 Each Way pick, Jannik Sinner. The Italian teenager did us proud in Miami though, and there should be much more to come from him.

The women’s tournament saw 9/1 Ashleigh Barty take the Miami Open title for a second time. The world no.1 overwhelmed our 25/1 Each Way pick Bianca Andreescu in the final, with the 20-year-old retiring injured in the second set.

Along with a satisfying set of match-day picks, Miami was an entertaining fortnight. I hope you enjoyed it, too.

Four tournaments…

This week we have four tournaments taking places, as the tours move from hard courts to the clay…

ATP Cagliari is underway this morning, with four matches on the day one schedule, and the final qualifying places still to be determined today, too. We may get involved over the next couple of days.

Two Italians head the Outright Winner betting in Cagliari, with 19-year-old Ones to Watch in 2021 name Lorenzo Musetti priced at just 5/1 to win a maiden ATP title. When we backed Musetti on hard courts in the big Miami event last time out, we got well over 100/1.

Lorenzo Sonego is next in the betting, with the 25-year-old at just 6/1. As I’m sure you know by now, I work with much bigger prices than that.

It’s a similar story at ATP Marbella, which also kicks off with four 1st round matches in the main draw today, as well as a quartet of qualifiers…

Last time we backed Casper Ruud, it was at 33/1 and on hard courts. As with Musetti, this time, the young highly-rated player is on their favoured clay – and Ruud is a 4/1 favourite here.

Two women’s tournaments get underway this afternoon…

Down in Colombia, the top of the WTA Bogota betting has a similar feel to that of Cagliari and Marbella. With a hotly-tipped youngster leading the field at a short, single-figure price. The 18-year-old Clara Tauson is 15/4 (4.75) favourite. I’ll be keeping an eye out for an outsider route at big prices, over the next couple of days.

Ones to Watch in Charleston – at 18/1, 20/1, and 40/1…

WTA Charleston is a 500-grade event, and that makes it the biggest trophy up for grabs this week (the other three are all 250’s).

You might think it sounds a bit strange to have a clay-court tournament in the States, and you’d be right. There are hardly any of them on the circuit.

Charleston is played on a kind of ‘green clay’ that tends to sit a bit firmer than the traditional skiddy or sludgy orange clay courts of Europe or South America. As such, players with hard-court hitting power have done well here in the past:

Former US Open runner-up Madison Keys is the reigning Charleston champion from 2019. The American was 9/1 when lifting the trophy. She’s a top price 20/1 this week. Maddie also made the semi finals in 2018, and reached the final in 2015.

Keys’ 2021 form is virtually non-existentent. The 26-year-old is currently ranked no.24 in the world, having been as high as no.7 earlier in her career. Madison is a bit of a puzzle; I’m on record as saying she’s hard to trust. And as well as inconsistency and perhaps even a bit of a lack of self-belief, she’s had it very tough with injuries.

However, my usual caveat when dismissing Keys is that she’s hard to trust at short prices. Odds of 20/1 caught my eye as soon as I saw them here. Not a massive price, granted. But she was 9/1 last time she played here – and won. And when Maddie made the US Open final for us back in 2017, it was at 16/1.

If there’s ever a time to back Keys again, it’s here in the States, at a tournament where she’s performed very well before.

Also in this top half of the Charleston draw:

  • Ashleigh Barty is the 3/1 favourite, but it’s worth noting that she’s never reached back-to-back finals in consecutive weeks. The world no.1 ended last week in superb form, but you never know if a player can carry that on a couple of days later at a different venue
  • Amanda Anisimova is one of those young players that we’re waiting to see catch light. At 40/1, the 19-year-old American is worth a play here. Anisimova took a set off Barty in the semi final in the Australian’s title-winning run at the French Open in 2019. Amanda’s big attacking game can go a bit awry at times, but the pace of the Charleston clay courts might allow the teenager a fraction more time to take aim

In the bottom half of the draw, I’ve got no problem at all going with the player we called Ms Reliable at the start of the season, Elise Mertens. The Belgian world no.17 was a 16/1 winner for us a the Gipplands Trophy in Melbourne, and she’s around that price again here, with 18/1, 16/1 and 14/1 available as I write.

Sofia Kenin (12/1) is the big name in this 4th quarter of the draw, but the American is still looking to regain her confidence and momentum. Kenin’s match record so far this season is won 7 lost 5. Mertens’ win-loss is 13-3, and she’s won two titles on clay in the past.

Ones to Watch

Outright Winner picks – Each Way

WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open

  • Madison Keys is 20/1 with Bet365, 888 Sport, 16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, 14/1 Betway, Boylesports, William Hill, BetVictor
  • Amanda Anisimova is 40/1 with Bet365, 888 Sport, 33/1 William Hill, Betfred, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral
  • Elise Mertens is 18/1 with BetVictor, 16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, 14/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betway, 888 Sport,

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts in Charleston from 3pm, and the bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets while the matches are taking place.

I’ll be back tomorrow with more on this week’s tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch