Tennis Betting Advice - April 2022

Bring on the Masters...

Tuesday 5th April 2022

Play was rained off at ATP Houston last night. The day one schedule has been bumped over to today. Our Ones to Watch pick Marcos Giron will take on Frances Tiafoe in the headline match, last up on the Tuesday schedule. That will be 1.30am+, UK time.

Monday’s underdog prices are still available. In fact, in the Outright Winner market, Bet365 have joined Ladbrokes & Coral in offering 40/1 Each Way for Giron. With 33/1 available elsewhere (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports). Play starts from 6pm, at which time the bookies will take down their Outright markets for the evening.

In the Match Winner betting, our man can be backed at odds-against to upset Tiafoe tonight, with odds of 6/4+ (2.5+) available with the likes of Bet365, Betway, Skybet, William Hill, and BetVictor.

  • You can view yesterday’s tournament preview in full here 

Bring on the Masters…

After an enjoyable couple of tournaments in March, in which we covered the first two ATP 1000 ‘Masters’ events of the season in Indian Wells and Miami. I’ve had my head in the numbers and formbook, and put together some Masters observations…

The findings give plenty of encouragement for us to go after the big odds again in the upcoming instalments of these 1000-grade tournaments, which are the most prestigious competitions on the calendar outside of the four Grand Slams.

The key takeaway here: new names are starting to appear in the big finals, with the old guard of Federer & co finally losing their stranglehold…

ATP ‘Masters’ 1000 events

10 finals played since start of 2021 season:

2022:

Miami – Carlos Alcaraz beat Casper Ruud

Indian Wells – Taylor Fritz beat Rafael Nadal

2021:

Paris – Novak Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev

Indian Wells – Cameron Norrie beat Nikoloz Basilashvili

Cincinnati – Alexander Zverev beat Andrey Rublev

Toronto – Daniil Medvedev beat Reilly Opelka

Rome – Rafael Nadal beat Novak Djokovic

Madrid – Alexander Zverev beat Matteo Berrettini

Monte Carlo – Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Andrey Rublev

Miami – Hubert Hurkacz beat Jannik Sinner

That list shows that 15 different players have contested the last 10 finals:

Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Taylor Fritz
Rafael Nadal
Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev
Cameron Norrie
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Alexander Zverev
Andrey Rublev
Reilly Opelka
Matteo Berrettini
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hubert Hurkacz
Jannik Sinner

What’s more, 10 of those 15 players were making their first appearance in a Masters 1000 final:

Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Taylor Fritz
Cameron Norrie
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Andrey Rublev
Reilly Opelka
Matteo Berrettini
Hubert Hurkacz
Jannik Sinner

And that list features some massive pre-tournament prices in the Outright Winner markets – including:

Hurkacz 100/1 champion
Fritz 100/1 champion
Norrie 66/1 champion

Opelka 150/1 runner-up
Basilashvili 100/1 runner-up
Berrettini 50/1 runner-up
Ruud 40/1 runner-up
Sinner 33/1 runner-up

  • Bookies generally offer odds of 1/2 odds Each Way for reaching the final (eg. runner-up) 

The changing of the guard…

In comparison, pre-2021 and the pandemic. The Masters 1000 silverware had long been dominated by the established big names in the men’s game. For example, before 2021, nine of the 10 Masters events had been won by either Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Daniil Medvedev.

With Federer turning 40 and seemingly on the brink of retirement. And Nadal, Djokovic, and Andy Murray all on the wrong side of 30. The ‘changing of the guard’ moment we’ve been anticipating in the men’s game for some time looks like it might really now be taking place…

Two down, seven to go…

And with those recent 33/1, 50/1, 66/1, and 100/1+ prices in mind. We can look forward to the upcoming Masters events with relish…

Still to come on the 2022 calendar in the ATP 1000 category:

  • 10th April – Monte Carlo – clay
  • 1st May – Madrid – clay
  • 8th May – Rome – clay
  • 7th August – Montreal – hard
  • 14th August – Cincinnati – hard
  • 9th October – Shanghai – hard
  • 31st October – Paris – indoor hard

Grab your flashy watch and designer sunglasses – we’ll be off to Monte Carlo next week!

Talking of The Masters…

It’s the first golf Major of the year this week. The Masters tees off at Augusta on Thursday. If you’re anything like me, then as a sports fan, I’m sure you like to have the occasional (or frequent) bet on any number of events, besides the tennis…

The Augusta Masters is one of the highlights of the sporting calendar. It’s a beautiful, iconic location. Over the years I’ve enjoyed some great Sunday nights watching the final-round drama pan out. Sometimes going my way (Adam Scott in a playoff in 2013). Other times not so well, such as Jordan Spieth finding the water in 2016… As any sensible big-odds bettor knows, that’s the way it goes in events like these.

To answer a question that no-one is asking: who am I backing this week at The Masters? Two men I’m following to give me a run for my money and hopefully some weekend-long entertainment, are two Americans: Xander Schauffele, and Gary Woodland.

  • Americans have taken the Green Jacket in 6 of the last 10 Masters. And over the last 4 years, a total of 15 USA players have occupied the final places for a Top 5 finish. (I garnered those stats from this free Masters report, that you can get here from the Golf Insider service)

Repeatedly backing a player because you’ve got it into your head that ‘one day’ they will win a Big One can be an unwise betting tactic. But with Schauffele – twice a runner-up at the Majors, including here in Augusta – he’s still very much on my list right now. His Major record is startlingly consistent: 9 x Top 10 finishes from 18 starts. (I used to have Hideki Matsuyama on my ‘one day/ big one’ list… didn’t back him last year… and then of course he went and won it.)

Woodland at a big price is my other selection for some weekend Each Way fun. He’s lower-ranked than Schauffele; but unlike Xander, Gary has tasted Major victory before – winning the US Open in 2019. He’s yet to make his mark at Augusta, but in the run-up to this week, Woodland has shown some promising form, posting Top 10 finishes in 3 of his last 5 tournaments.

If you’re after the best prices for The Masters, it’s a matter of weighing-up the biggest Outright Winner odds, alongside the highest number of Each Way places available. For example…

  • Schauffele is a top price of 25/1 Outright with SportNation (Each Way terms of 1/4th odds for the Top 5 places). For the most generous place terms, 18/1 at Boylesports and Skybet gives an industry-best 11 places for 1/5th odds
  • Woodland is a top price of 100/1 Outright with NetBet (Each Way terms 1/5th odds for the Top 8 places). While Skybet at 66/1 have the 11 places available

Of course, in betting, it pays to specialise…

If you’d like to know what a dedicated golf expert has to say about The Masters this week. Then there’s one place I recommend you go, and that’s the Golf Insider service. Take a look for yourself at the magnificent track record of big-odds winners, and get access for The Masters picks this week, here…

That’s all from me for today. Enjoy the tennis… and the golf!

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch