Tennis Betting Advice - April 2023
One to Watch at 50/1 - his name is Luca...
Monday 3rd April 2023
This is the first of two emails from me today. See below for a 50/1 shot for ATP Estoril. Followed by a second email before lunchtime, with selections for tournaments starting this afternoon & this evening…
Good morning. The March ‘Sunshine Double’ largely went the way of the favourites. With Carlos Alcaraz winning ATP Indian Wells, and Daniil Medvedev taking the honours at the men’s Miami Open. Medvedev made the final in both events. In the women’s, Elena Rybakina was a double finalist - lifting the trophy at Indian Wells, and finishing runner-up in Miami.
However, while the 2023-to-date pattern for favourites prevailing continued, the one big flashing light on the numbers dashboard last month was 33-year-old Petra Kvitova, who won WTA Miami at 100/1…
You & I are always on the lookout for dangerous and promising outsiders. It’s the Ones to Watch way…
April is a new month, and the tour moves to clay with no fewer than five tournaments for us to shoot at this week:
Men
ATP 250 Houston - USA
ATP 250 Estoril - Portugal
ATP 250 Marrakech - Morocco
Women
WTA 500 Charleston - USA
WTA 250 Bogota - Colombia
Today we’re getting Outright Winner picks in the book for this week’s events. Sticking to our Ones to Watch mantra: backing appealing youngsters and underdogs, at attractive Each Way prices…
One to Watch in Estoril - Luca Van Assche…
One youngster I’ve been tracking since the start of the year is upcoming French teenager, Luca Van Assche. We mentioned him briefly during the indoor hard-court swing in February, where he produced some eye-catching tennis in defeat against the higher-ranked Marc-Andrea Huesler.
Van Assche has impressed on the lower-tier ATP Challenger Tour since then. Playing Challenger events is a smart and sensible path for an 18-year-old looking to gain competitive tour experience and work their way up the rankings. It’s a path that the likes of recent teenage world no.1 and reigning US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz took, racking up a raft of Challenger titles - his first age 17 - before being unleashed onto the full senior ATP circuit.
I’m not saying Luca is going to be as good as the Spanish phenomenon. From what I’ve seen so far, a more accurate comparison would be with Danish youngster Holger Rune - who has burst onto the scene himself of course, winning the ATP 1000 Paris Masters at the end of last season. Rune is currently ranked no.8 in the world, and still just 19 years of age.
Luca Van Assche may or may not go onto such great things. But I’d say there are plenty of promising signs there right now. He’s got a nice dose of feistiness about him (like Rune). And with a potentially lethal serve, and a fine athletic game, he could prove one to follow at big prices in smaller-scale tournaments this spring & summer, and beyond…
Form is on Luca’s side coming into April - and his confidence will be high…
Van Assche has just won two Challenger tournaments in a row: Pau in France on indoor hard courts, and then just last week - San Remo in Italy on clay. The latter being the teenager’s most successful surface so far in his fledgling pro career, with 59 of his 101 overall match wins coming on clay, and a 67% win-rate on the dirt.
Up to a new career-best of no.91 in the world, the 18-year-old is one to watch as a 50/1 outsider at this week’s ATP 250 event on clay in Estoril, the Millennium Open. Luca is in the bottom half of the draw, thus avoiding top seed and 5/2 (3.5) tournament favourite Casper Ruud.
Van Assche is in the same section of the draw as two opposable names, Diego Schwartzman (12/1 in general) and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (6/1 at best). Both are strong on clay, but the former has been woefully out of form, and has said that his father’s illness has distracted him on court. The latter is supremely talented, but can be alarmingly inconsistent, and struggles to keep a calm head.
Play starts at ATP Estoril from 12 noon today (UK time). But don’t worry if you miss this pick this morning; Luca Van Assche doesn’t play until Tuesday. You should still be able to get on at big prices tonight or tomorrow morning.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Estoril - Millennium Estoril Open:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I’ll be back in a couple of hours with our next picks for this week’s tournaments.
P.S
Lookout for a special email on Wednesday, too. We’ll be taking a look at some outsider ‘ones to watch’ for the golf at Augusta… The Masters starts on Thursday!
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson