Ones to Watch in Monte-Carlo at 40/1 and 50/1...

Tuesday 7th April 2026

Time will tell if taking on the Top 2 in this year’s big tournaments is smart or not. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner head up the betting once again this week, with the first clay-court ATP 1000 event of the year - the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - underway in the 1st round…

Play continues from 10am, UK time. Our two picks don’t play today though, so if you miss the Outright Winner market this time, look to jump on tonight, or first thing Wednesday…

LORENZO MUSETTI had a stellar clay season in 2025, including reaching the final here in Monte-Carlo. The Italian was our 100/1 early-bird pick for the French Open last year, and ended up going close by making the semi finals (a familiar near-miss at big odds for us there)...

The current world no.5 (a career-high ranking) is 40/1 this week, and it’s plain to see that that price would be shorter if it wasn’t for the fact that Lorenzo ended up missing time off the tour injured around the end of last season - mounting his return to the circuit in 2026. I like Musetti’s price for an outsider run here, as he’s a far better player than 40/1 suggests.

JOAO FONSECA won his 1st round match over the weekend, and the Ones to Watch teenager has to be followed this spring & summer at fancy prices. He’s 50/1 here, placed in the opposite side of the draw to world no.1 Alcaraz and Musetti, and in with Sinner…

The 19-year-old world no.40 is a genuine future contender to become a top, top name. The Brazilian gets great support everywhere he goes, and clay is a surface he’s completely at home on. Fonseca ran Sinner close on hard courts recently (7-6, 7-6 defeat); on clay, the youngster may fancy his chances at a second crack at the no.2.

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Ones to Watch picks:

See above for full details
 
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

ATP Monte-Carlo - Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters

• Lorenzo Musetti @ 40/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor, Betway

• Joao Fonseca @ 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, BetVictor, Betway, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports

Play continues from 10am, UK time. Our two picks don’t play today though, so if you miss the Outright Winner market this time, look to jump on tonight, or first thing Tuesday.

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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch