Tennis Betting Advice - April 2026
WTA Madrid: Ones to Watch at 16/1 and 100/1...
Monday 20th April 2026
More favourites than we would like have been winning trophies this season. That trend may well swing back into our underdog-based favour as the summer rolls into view. I’ll be reporting on the 2026 winning-odds stats soon. But today, it’s time to get our first picks of the week in the book over in Spain…
The Mutua Madrid Open dominates the schedule over the next fortnight. With this joint men’s & women’s 1000-grade ‘Masters’ event following the new expanding format ATP & WTA 1000 tournaments.
As I write this Monday afternoon, we’re still waiting for most firms to go up with the Outright Winner markets for WTA Madrid. Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes & Coral are online now though, and those are the odds we’re working with this afternoon…
Considering the records here of world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka and no.4 Iga Swiatek, I’m swerving the top half of the draw from the off, seeing as it contains both of them. Sabalenka’s last-three-years story at this event reads: winner - runner-up - winner. Swiatek’s spells out: semi-final - winner - runner-up.
Sabalenka is favourite for the title, at 5/2 (3.5) at best. Swiatek is 6/1. I like two names from the opposite side of the draw, at bigger prices…
JESSICA PEGULA has been doing a lot of winning this year. The American world no.5 has made at least the quarter finals in six out of six tournaments entered in 2026. Reaching two semi finals, including at the Australian Open. And going on to two finals, winning both of those.
Jess has been to the final here in Madrid before, too (2022). At 16/1 and 14/1, Pegula has genuine best-of-the-rest credentials here.
QINWEN ZHENG is more of a flyer at 100/1 - 66/1, but those odds are more about her 2026 form on the comeback from injury, rather than her overall potential, playing ability, and career ceiling…
The 23-year-old Chinese star is currently down at no.36 in the rankings, but was as high as no.4 in the world before injury struck. When Zheng gets her game back into swing alongside her fitness, I’m expecting the former Grand Slam finalist to get right back up there. She has age on her side, too.
What’s more, Qinwin Zheng has a very good record on clay. With a career match win-loss of 76%, which is a very noteworthy figure (anything 70%+ gets me sitting up in my chair).
The big-serving right-hander won Olympic gold in Paris in 2024… played on the same courts as the French Open itself, at Roland Garros. Here in Madrid, the Chinese player is yet to go deep. But as I’ve said a few times already this year, when Zheng bounces back into form, she’s going to be a big threat all over the tour.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
WTA Madrid - Mutua Madrid Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Jessica Pegula @ 16/1 Bet365, 14/1 Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral
Qinwen Zheng @ 100/1 Bet365, 66/1 Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral
Play starts on Tuesday morning. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during matches.
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I’ll be back tomorrow with a men’s preview for Madrid.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone