Tennis Betting Advice - August 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – 50/1 Men’s pick…

Tuesday 28th August 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day Two – play starts 4pm…
  • Outright Winner – 50/1 Men’s pick…
  • Looking for the upsets…

Good morning and welcome to Day Two of your US Open 2018 service…

Play starts from 4pm, UK time.

Crash, bang, wallop…

We didn’t have to wait long for the first shock of the tournament. In fact, it came in one of the opening matches on day one. World No.1 Simona Halep was knocked out in the 1st Round in straight sets by the 33-year-old Estonian, Kaia Kanepi. The World No.44 was a 5/1 (6.00) shot for that upset.

We weren’t on that one but I was cheering for Kanepi as the match unfolded; the top seed going out is never a bad thing when you’re in the business of backing underdogs.

My own day one pick for a potential upset, 11/4 (3.75) shot Shuai Zhang, wasn’t able to make headlines for herself, going down 2-0 to the match favourite Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard isn’t New York’s biggest fan though and if the price is right we’ll be opposing her again.

Our 66/1 Women’s Outright Winner pick Elise Mertens got off to a winning start – after a bit of a wobble and an injury timeout – to make it through to the 2nd Round. Mertens is in the top half of the draw; Halep’s early exit is a nice boost there – if we could get Serena Williams knocked out then the draw would really open up. Our 28/1 pick Caroline Wozniacki plays tonight.

Outright Winner picks…

Onto to today’s bets now and it’s time to look at the Men’s Outright Winner betting.

The last seven Women’s Grand Slams have been won by seven different players, but the last seven Men’s trophies have been gobbled up by Roger Federer, Rafaal Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Unsurprisingly, those three are at the top of the list here with the best prices Djokovic 12/5 (3.40), Nadal 11/4 (3.75) and Federer 6/1 (7.00).

There is hope for big-odds hunters though. Last year the US Open saw a 150/1 finalist, with Kevin Anderson taking on Nadal. The year before Stan Wawrinka lifted the trophy at 25/1. In 2014, 100/1 Marin Cilic beat 50/1 Kei Nishikori in the final.

Djokovic & Federer are drawn together in the 4th Quarter here, making the bottom half of the draw the toughest on paper – but also meaning at least one of those big names will be out before the semi final stage. Reigning champion, World No.1 and top seed Nadal prowls in the top half and 1st Quarter.

The Men’s event is likely to be less ‘open’ than the Women’s, but there is still scope to follow a carefully-selected outsider – with the key being to find an attractive Each Way price…

It might be too much to ask to get all three of the big names knocked out, but at huge prices an underdog run to a final can give a rewarding place return. For a recent case in point see 50/1 Kevin Anderson at Wimbledon this summer, with the Each Way terms giving a 25/1 payout for the runner-up.

My recent ‘One to Watch’ David Goffin (80/1) remains just that – after pulling out of his last event with a shoulder issue, I want to see how he gets on in the first few days before following up on the 27-year-old Belgian.

As also noted in our pre-tournament US Open 2018 – Ones to Watch report, breakthrough Grand Slam finalists in the Men’s tend to be established players closer to 30 than to their teenage years…

50/1 American to seize the moment…

There hasn’t been an American finalist in the Men’s US Open since Andy Roddick in 2006. And there hasn’t been an American winner since Roddick back in 2003.

John Isner is the current American No.1. He’s entered his ‘home’ Grand Slam in that position several times and so far failed to get any further than the quarter finals (2011).

However, this is the first time he’s in New York with a genuine Grand Slam breakthrough under his belt…

As I mentioned earlier this summer, Isner is playing the best tennis of his career late on. Aged 33, this season he has won his biggest title (Miami Masters), and then ended his Wimbledon hoodoo by getting past the 3rd Round for the first time – going all the way to the semi finals and coming within a whisker of reaching the final.

At 6’10”, Isner is an Ace machine but he’s also got some smart shots and a booming forehand to go with his giant serve. He’s one of those players on the tour that opponents don’t like playing – short points break up the rhythm, serves fly past you in the blink of an eye and sets are often long and decided by tiebreaks.

Isner is in the top half of the draw, but would avoid the favourite Nadal until the semi final. In his quarter, John has a decent record against some of the bigger names in his way. Isner has won his last two meetings with Juan-Martin Del Potro (14/1), has a 4-1 career head-to-head record v Milos Raonic (50/1) and a 3-1 record v Wawrinka (25/1). He won his 1st Round match yesterday, 3-0 – serving 20 Aces.

Isner is having a big season and all the signs are that he can have his best ever US Open run this year. Odds of 50/1 make him an appealing outsider.

Outright Winner – Men’s:

BET: John Isner @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 (51.00) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Looking for the upsets…

One player catches my eye as a match underdog in the Women’s 1st Round today. I’d have the favourite the other way around…

Mihaela Buzarnescu is enjoying the best season of her career, reaching three semi finals and three finals – and finally getting the trophy win in the most recent one, on hard courts in the USA in San Jose.

The 30-year-old Romanian is a tricky player – full of angles and racket skills. And she’s an absolute fighter. In the 1st Round in San Jose she was in tears at the end of her match, winning despite seeming exhausted. She went on to win her next four matches and take the title.

Buzarnescu has had a little rest since those efforts and can upset the odds against the talented youngster Marketa Vondrousova. The 19-year-old Czech arrives here having lost each of her last four hard courts matches – two on either side of the clay & grass seasons. I get the feeling she’s still being priced up on promise and potential.

Buzarnescu has achieved a career-best ranking of No.20 this season, and can get the better of the World No.103 today.

Match Winner:

BET: Mihaela Buzarnescu to beat Marketa Vondrousova @ 6/5
BOOKIES: 6/5 (2.20) BetVictor, Betway, 23/20 (2.15) NetBet, 10Bet, 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, Boylesports, William Hill

Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Men’s Outright Winner – John Isner @ 50/1 Each Way

Match Winner – Mihaela Buzarnescu to beat Marketa Vondrousova @ 6/5

  • Unless otherwise stated in your Ones to Watch emails, all Outright Winner picks are treated as 1 point Each Way stakes and all Match picks are treated a 1 point
  • Take a look at these Tennis Betting Rules to see why I recommend some bookies over others

I’ll be back at 10am tomorrow with your US Open Bets of the Day for Wednesday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch