Tennis Betting Advice - August 2019

US Open: Day Five – a big night for our Ones to Watch…

Friday 30th August 2019

US Open - Day Five

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Three women in action tonight…
  • Saver on Alex…
  • Play starts 4pm…

Good morning and welcome to Day Five of your US Open 2019 daily service.

I’m in your inbox every day, sharing all my US Open thoughts, opinion, analysis and advice with you.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.

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Two Major champs crash out…

We identified the 2nd Quarter of the women’s draw as a place to take on the big names and look for an outsider at a big price.

My big-odds picks in that section, Sloane Stephens (33/1) and Alison Riske (125/1), both fluffed their lines. Both may now be looking ruefully at the draw-sheet and thinking what might have been.

Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova – both Top 10 players, both two-time Grand Slam champions – both went out last night.

That’s two big names gone. We could see more top seeds fall in the next few days. We have three women with chances to take advantage if things open up – and the ability to punch a few holes in the draw all by themselves…

  • Pre-tournament picks – 66/1 Each Way Sofia Kenin, 100/1 Each Way Dayana Yastremska
  • US Open daily service pick – 14/1 Each Way Karolina Pliskova

While 100/1+ outsider choice Riske lost yesterday, and Dan Evans beat Lucas Pouille 3-1 in a match where we were looking for the 3-2 turnaround at 6/1, our match selections at shorter prices came good.

In the women’s, Jo Konta, Petra Martic & Maria Sakkari all won to land our 5/4 (2.25) Match Winner treble.

In the men’s, 9/5 (2.80) match underdog pick Feliciano Lopez beat Yoshihito Nishioka 3-1 to fully justify our support. Lopez crushed down 28 Aces and won 86% of his 1st Serve Points. If he keeps serving like that then he can give man of the moment Daniil Medvedev a good match tonight.

The same goes for Nick Kyrgios. Our 50/1 One to Watch hit 24 Aces last night and reeled off a second consecutive 3-0 win here in New York. With a stack of seeds already sent packing from his side of the draw, the oddsmakers now have Nick around 16/1 for the title.

We’ve got the value in the bag with Kyrgios. Now we just need him to stay dialled in, stay out of (too much) trouble and keep his game going. Never mind all the hoopla – he’s playing great tennis.

Round 3…

After the 50+ match catch-up day on Thursday, Friday’s schedule looks a bit more serene. There are 16 matches today and overnight as the 3rd Round gets underway.

It’s a big day for our Ones to Watch players…

Kenin is priced up as a 7/5 (2.40) underdog v Madison Keys. These two Americans have met twice already this season and the head-to-head is level at 1-1.

Yastremska is a 6/4 (2.50) outsider v Elina Svitolina. This will be their first meeting.

Keys and Svitolina are the higher-ranked and more experienced players, so their favouritism in the betting is correct.

However, Kenin and Yastremska both play ‘no fear’ tennis and I don’t expect either of those two youngsters to be overawed today. They are both very much on their way up in the game. Whether they can make the big breakthrough at this tournament remains to be seen. But one thing’s for sure – we’re on them at very attractive early prices.

Kenin is our 66/1 pre-tournament pick, with Yastremska 100/1. The bookies now have them at 40/1 and 66/1 respectively – at best. If they win through to the Last 16, then those prices will go.

Both matches are first on the night session in the two big stadium courts, at Midnight UK time.

Our 14/1 pick Karolina Pliskova is priced up as a heavy 1/6 (1.17) favourite to beat Ons Jabeur today. That’s the first match on the Louis Armstrong Stadium court at 4pm.

Saver on Alex…

Last but not least we have our 28/1 outside chance to win men’s Quarter 2, Alex De Minaur.

The 20-year-old Australian has started impressively with two strong wins in the opening rounds. The level goes up a notch today as he faces current World No.7 and former US Open runner-up, Kei Nishikori (Grandstand court, 4pm).

With the round after this looking simpler on paper than this one, today makes sense for some ‘saver bet’ advice on our De Minaur position:

Staking 2 points on Nishikori to beat him at odds of 1/2+ (1.50+) will cover the initial 1-point stake on De Minaur to win Quarter 2.

And if Alex progresses to the 4th Round, you’ll still have a nice big price on your side.

Today’s Ones to Watch pick:

SAVER BET – only place if you previously backed De Minaur as advised

Match Winner:

STAKE: 2 points
BET: Kei Nishikori to beat Alex De Minaur @ 1/2+
BOOKIES: 8/13 (1.62) Bet365, 8/15 (1.53) William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 1/2 (1.50) Boylesports

Latest odds here

I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next US Open daily email…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch